纸浆：高库存继续常态化，浆价宽幅震荡为主

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - The high inventory of pulp at ports will continue to be the norm, with spot liquidity under continuous pressure and supply pressure intensifying. Downstream paper mills are reluctant to purchase raw materials and are mainly focused on digesting inventory, with the operating rate remaining low. After the main contract change, short - term fluctuations are significant. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2509 contract will fluctuate widely in the range of 5160 - 5550 yuan/ton this week [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review: Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed a trend of weakening for softwood pulp and remaining stable for hardwood pulp. The prices of softwood pulp such as Silver Star, Cariboo, and Northern Wood decreased by 0.82%, 0.81%, and 0.79% respectively. The prices of hardwood pulp such as Goldfish, Bird, and Alpa remained unchanged. The price of chemical mechanical pulp remained stable, the price of natural pulp increased by 2.00%, and the price of sugarcane pulp decreased by 2.5% [10][12]. - Pulp Futures Price Review: Last week, the pulp futures contract SP2509 first rose, then declined, and finally fell in a volatile manner, closing at 5120 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.50%. The weighted trading volume and weighted open interest increased [15]. - Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison: Due to the smaller decline in the spot price of softwood pulp compared to the futures price, the contango of the futures - spot basis continued to widen, reaching 930 yuan/ton, an increase of 72 yuan/ton compared to last week [19]. - Log Futures Price Review: The main log futures contract 2507 showed a significant volatile rebound last week, closing at 812.0 yuan/cubic meter, a weekly increase of 5.8%. The trading volume and open interest increased [21]. 2. Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Weekly Pulp Production: Last week, the weekly pulp production was 48.29 tons, a slight increase of 0.19%. The production of hardwood pulp decreased by 0.48%, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp increased by 1.02%. It is expected that the production of domestic hardwood pulp and chemical mechanical pulp will reach about 21.0 tons and 20.1 tons respectively this week [23]. - Capacity Utilization: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp decreased by 0.4% to 77.5%, and that of chemical mechanical pulp increased by 0.8% to 83.2% [28]. - Monthly Pulp Production: In May 2025, domestic pulp production was 199.0 tons, a decrease of 0.49%. Wood pulp production increased by 0.67%. Hardwood pulp production decreased by 2.99%, and chemical mechanical pulp production increased by 4.16% [30]. - Monthly Capacity Utilization: In May 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp increased by 8.68% to 77.9%, and that of chemical mechanical pulp increased by 0.58% to 84.2%. Bamboo pulp and sugarcane pulp production decreased [32]. - Monthly Production Profit: In May 2025, the production profit of hardwood pulp was 660.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35.32% month - on - month and 69.77% year - on - year. The production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 418 yuan/ton, a decrease of 192.55 yuan/ton month - on - month [36]. - Pulp Imports: In May 2025, pulp imports were 301.6 tons, an increase of 4.26% month - on - month and 6.95% year - on - year. The cumulative imports from January to May 2025 were 1555 tons, an increase of 2.1% year - on - year [38]. 3. Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Tissue Paper Market: Last week, domestic tissue paper production was 27.4 tons, a decrease of 2.14%. The capacity utilization rate was 62.1%, an increase of 1.3% [40]. - Downstream Cultural Paper Market: Last week, copperplate paper production was 7.7 tons, an increase of 1.18%, and the capacity utilization rate was 56.6%, an increase of 0.4%. Offset paper production was 19.5 tons, a decrease of 2.99%, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.6%, a decrease of 1.8% [43]. - Downstream Packaging Paper Market: Last week, the production of white cardboard and whiteboard paper decreased, with capacity utilization rates of 72.2% and 69.72% respectively, showing a slight decline. The production of corrugated paper and boxboard paper also decreased, with capacity utilization rates of 64.2% and 66.6% respectively, showing a decline [44][48]. - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis: Last week, the prices of tissue paper and cultural paper remained stable, while the prices of whiteboard paper and white cardboard decreased slightly, and the prices of boxboard paper and corrugated paper remained stable [49][52][55]. - Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization: In May 2025, the production and capacity utilization rates of tissue paper and white cardboard decreased, while the production of offset paper increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of copperplate paper decreased. The actual domestic pulp consumption decreased slightly [59][62][65]. 4. Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: Currently, the overall pulp inventory at domestic ports is increasing. The inventory at mainstream ports is 220.8 tons, a 1.05% increase. The inventory at Qingdao Port is 135.8 tons, a 1.19% increase. The inventories at Changshu Port and Tianjin Port are also increasing [66][70]. - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts: Last week, pulp futures warehouse receipts were 24.87 tons, a 1.51% decrease. The total warehouse receipts in Shandong increased by 1.65%. The inventory in Qingdao International Logistics Warehouse increased, while that in Sinotrans Huazhong Jiaozhou Warehouse decreased [71].