有色金属套利周报20250623-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - For aluminum's inter - period arbitrage, domestic demand is entering the off - season with reduced orders, aluminum rods starting to accumulate inventory, and the social inventory inflection point approaching. There is a risk of aluminum price rising and then falling. After the off - season, demand is expected to support the aluminum price again. It is recommended to participate in aluminum's inter - period reverse arbitrage on dips [5]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, domestic refined zinc output has significantly recovered, and new global zinc mine projects put into production this year are expected to gradually release incremental output. While aluminum's social inventory is low, which supports the price and has a stronger fundamental than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on dips [5]. Summary by Directory Part I: Weekly Price Performance Review and Fund Flow - Weekly Price Review: From June 13 to June 20, 2025, LME aluminum rose 2.34%, LME zinc rose 0.86%, LME lead rose 0.13%, LME nickel fell 0.33%, LME tin fell 0.27%, SHFE copper fell 0.03%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.12%, SHFE zinc rose 0.14%, SHFE lead fell 0.80%, SHFE nickel fell 1.37%, and SHFE tin fell 1.19% [9]. - Fund Flow: Most non - ferrous metals' single - side open interest is at a relatively low level in recent years. Aluminum's single - side open interest has increased significantly recently. This week, the single - side open interest of aluminum, lead, and nickel increased by 7.3%, 1.9%, and 7.5% respectively, while that of copper, zinc, and tin decreased by 3.7%, 13.6%, and 7.2% respectively. All major non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [11]. Part II: Non - Ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - Inventory: From June 13 to June 20, 2025, LME copper inventory decreased by 13.34%, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2.94%, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3.65%, LME lead inventory increased by 7.21%, LME nickel inventory increased by 3.85%, and LME tin inventory decreased by 3.76% [28]. - Profit: This week, copper's processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and smelters' loss was 2,651 yuan/ton with a slightly narrowed loss month - on - month. Aluminum's theoretical smelting cost was 18,586 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose to 2,114 yuan/ton. Zinc's imported processing fee increased slightly month - on - month, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic ore was 814 yuan/ton [43]. Part III: Non - Ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - Basis: On June 20, 2025, the copper basis was 500, the aluminum basis was 235, the zinc basis was 285, the lead basis was 190, the nickel basis was 2360, and the tin basis was 2510 [46]. - LME Premium and Discount: Data shows the historical trends of LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin's premium and discount (0 - 3) from 2019 to 2025 [54]. - Term Structure: This week, nickel was in the Contango structure, while copper and zinc were in the Back structure. Copper's continuous - one minus near - month spread was - 240, an increase of 100 compared to last week; aluminum's was - 95, an increase of 325; zinc's was - 170, an increase of 25; lead's was 35, unchanged from last week; nickel's was 140, an increase of 320; and tin's was - 50, a decrease of 440 [61]. Part IV: Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - Shanghai - London Ratio: Zinc and lead's Shanghai - London ratios are at historically high levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major base metals were 1.12 for copper, 1.11 for aluminum, 1.15 for zinc, 1.17 for lead, 1.09 for nickel, and 1.11 for tin [80]. - Import Profit and Loss: This week, lead's import profit and loss was 493, while that of other major metals was negative. Cross - market arbitrage can consider factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and the expectation of domestic growth - stabilization policies [80]. Part V: Cross - Variety Ratio Changes - Ratio and Spread Data: Detailed data on the ratios and spreads of copper - aluminum, copper - zinc, copper - lead, copper - nickel, copper - tin, zinc - aluminum, aluminum - lead, aluminum - nickel, aluminum - tin, zinc - lead, zinc - nickel, zinc - tin, lead - nickel, lead - tin, and nickel - tin at the current time, three months ago, and one year ago are provided, including ratio values and their percentile rankings [97].