白糖日报-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Internationally, as Brazil is about to reach its supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to enter an accumulation phase. In the short term, the market is influenced by production data, while in the long term, Brazil's production progress and actual increase are key factors. Domestically, the fast sales rate may support sugar prices, but the influx of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may lead to a decline in sugar prices. Overall, sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR2511 closed at 5,721 with a 0.02% increase, SR2507 at 5,750 with a 0.17% decrease, and SR2509 at 5,619 with a 0.16% decrease. Trading volumes for SR2511, SR2507, and SR2509 decreased by 32.70%, 7.34%, and 12.38% respectively, and open interests decreased by 4.11%, 5.30%, and increased by 1.70% respectively [3]. - Spot Market: Sugar prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, and other regions ranged from 5,865 to 6,420 yuan/ton. The basis for Liuzhou was 379 yuan/ton [3]. - Inter - month Spread: The SR07 - SR11 spread was 131 with a decrease of 1, SR09 - SR11 was 102, and SR07 - SR09 was 29 with a decrease of 11 [3]. - Import Profit: The in - quota and out - of - quota import prices from Brazil were 4,398 and 5,621 yuan/ton respectively, with a spread of 479 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou. For Thailand, the corresponding prices were 4,434 and 5,668 yuan/ton, with a spread of 432 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou [3]. Market Judgment - International: Considering Brazil's approaching supply peak, global sugar inventories are expected to increase. Short - term prices are affected by production data, and long - term trends depend on Brazil's production progress and actual increase [4]. - Domestic: Fast sales rates may support sugar prices, but the large - scale entry of imported sugar and the weakening of raw sugar may lead to a decline in sugar prices. In the short term, sugar prices are expected to remain weak [4]. Logic Analysis - Raw sugar prices have declined due to expected global supply increases, and domestic sugar prices are expected to follow raw sugar prices in the short term due to delayed summer stocking demand, weak raw sugar, and increased out - of - quota import profits [5]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Expected to remain weak in the short term [6]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [7]. - Options: Consider out - of - the - money ratio spread options or selling wide - straddle options [10].