南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报-20250623

Report Overview - Report Date: June 23, 2025 - Report Type: Daily Risk Management Report on Silicon Industry Chain Enterprises - Analyst: Xia Yingying, Yu Weihan Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon is in the industrial cycle of eliminating backward production capacity, with continuous supply surplus pressure. As the wet season approaches, enterprises in the southwest region are gradually increasing furnace starts, and the inventory may further accumulate. The demand side shows that the overall output of silicone enterprises remains stable, while aluminum alloy enterprises perform averagely. The high - inventory pattern remains unchanged, limiting the price upside [3]. - Polysilicon is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The PV rush - installation tide has overdrafted some future demand. On the supply side, raw material prices remain low, polysilicon production has increased, and downstream production schedules have slightly declined, with high inventory pressure still existing. If there are production capacity elimination plans or industrial integration agreements in the future, it is expected to improve the polysilicon industry situation [3]. Key Points by Category 1. Futures Price and Volatility - Industrial silicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 7600 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 28.0%, daily increase of 0.02%, current volatility at the 84.6% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. - Polysilicon主力合约: Strong pressure level at 33000 yuan/ton, current 20 - day rolling volatility at 25.76%, daily increase of 0.35%, current volatility at the 61.20% percentile in the past 3 years [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high product inventory and inventory impairment risks, short futures (SI2509/PS2509) with a 30% hedging ratio to lock in profits and make up for production costs, sell call options (both over - the - counter and on - exchange options) with a 70% ratio, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, buy long - term futures contracts of industrial silicon or polysilicon according to the production plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - Likely Positive Factors: Positive domestic macro - policies may stimulate power demand growth in the long run; cost reduction space is limited in the short term, providing cost support; downstream demand enterprises still have profits, and the approaching wet season may boost production enthusiasm [7]. - Likely Negative Factors: As the wet season approaches, production capacity in the southwest region is expected to be released; rumors of joint production cuts by downstream polysilicon enterprises may become a reality, weakening demand; high inventory restricts price increases [7]. Polysilicon - Likely Positive Factors: There may be production capacity integration and elimination plans in the industry, which could improve the industry situation if an agreement is reached [7]. - Likely Negative Factors: Inventory is still in an accumulation trend, and demand has not improved; the combination of low raw material prices and the approaching wet season may lead to increased production by polysilicon enterprises [8]. 4. Market Data Industrial Silicon - Futures: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures主力合约 is 7420 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 30 yuan (0.41%); the trading volume is 292932 lots, a decrease of 285562 lots (- 49.36%); the open interest is 303119 lots, a decrease of 2437 lots (- 0.80%) [10]. - Spot: The price of East China 553 silicon is 8150 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of East China 421 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the basis of East China 553 is 730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 3.95%); the basis of East China 421 is 1280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan (- 2.29%) [14]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total warehouse receipts are 54184 lots, a decrease of 439 lots (- 5.29%); the inventory at the Kunming delivery warehouse is 8.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons (- 37.67%) [19]. Polysilicon - Futures: The closing price of the polysilicon futures主力合约 is 30615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1085 yuan (- 3.42%); the trading volume is 88450 lots, an increase of 334 lots (0.38%); the open interest is 78183 lots, an increase of 52026 lots (198.90%) [22]. - Spot: The price of P - type polysilicon (dense material) is 30 yuan/kg, with no daily change; the price of N - type polysilicon (dense material) is 33.5 yuan/kg, with no daily change [37]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total polysilicon warehouse receipts are 2600 lots, with no daily change [40].