流动性和机构行为周度观察：资金利率平稳，杠杆水平提升-20250623

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report From June 16 - 20, 2025, the central bank conducted a net injection of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase, with 182 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The overall liquidity remained relatively loose, with DR001 operating below 1.40%. From June 16 - 22, 2025, the net payment scale of government bonds increased, the yields of most maturing inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) declined, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market increased. From June 23 - 29, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is 749.8 billion yuan, and the maturing scale of NCDs is about 1137.8 billion yuan. Despite factors such as the end - of - month period, large net payment of government bonds, and quarter - end bank assessment pressure, the central bank's attitude of caring for liquidity is clear, and the cross - quarter liquidity is expected to remain relatively stable [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - Central Bank's Fund Operation: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations of 960.3 billion yuan and repurchased 858.2 billion yuan, with a net injection of 102.1 billion yuan. The maturing scale of MLF was 182 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan in the full - scale operation. From June 23 - 27, 2025, 960.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in the open market and 10 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits will mature [6]. - Liquidity Situation: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.38% and 1.44% respectively, down 0.3 basis points and up 0.8 basis points compared with June 9 - 13, 2025. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.52% and 1.58% respectively, up 0.5 basis points and 1.5 basis points compared with June 9 - 13, 2025 [6]. - Net Payment of Government Bonds: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 474.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 467.8 billion yuan compared with June 9 - 15, 2025. Among them, the net payment of treasury bonds was about 306.7 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 167.5 billion yuan. From June 23 - 29, 2025, the expected net payment of government bonds is about 749.8 billion yuan, including about 291 billion yuan for treasury bonds and about 458.8 billion yuan for local government bonds [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - Yield Changes: As of June 20, 2025, the yields of 1 - month and 3 - month NCDs were 1.6250% and 1.6023% respectively, down 1 basis point and 3 basis points compared with June 13, 2025. The yield of 1 - year NCDs was 1.6392%, down 3 basis points compared with June 13, 2025 [8]. - Maturity Scale and Net Financing: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about 8.07 billion yuan, compared with a net financing of about - 16.29 billion yuan from June 9 - 15, 2025. From June 23 - 29, 2025, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 1137.8 billion yuan, continuing the scale of over one trillion yuan [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market: From June 16 - 20, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 108.25%, compared with 107.83% from June 9 - 13, 2025. On June 20 and June 13, 2025, the calculated leverage ratios in the inter - bank bond market were about 108.44% and 107.92% respectively [9].