Asset Performance Overview - Geopolitical tensions have led to a significant increase in energy prices, with Brent crude oil rising by 2.09% and natural gas surging by 10.72% due to concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East[4] - Gold prices fell by 1.98% as a result of a stronger US dollar and delayed interest rate cuts, indicating a shift in investor preference towards energy assets[4] - The shipping index experienced a sharp decline of 10.66%, reflecting suppressed demand and a lack of sustainable support for shipping rates[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds are rated 6, supported by improved liquidity and optimistic sentiment, but caution is advised regarding local government debt supply and quarter-end funding disruptions[5] - Overseas equities are rated 6, with a focus on structural opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in non-US markets like Hong Kong and South Korea[5] - Gold remains a strong allocation at 6, driven by dual factors of geopolitical conflict and economic slowdown enhancing its safe-haven appeal[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include potential policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market is rated 5, with valuation returning to reasonable levels supported by high dividend defensive attributes, despite pressure from geopolitical risks[7] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market decreased by 11.5% week-on-week, indicating reduced market participation and potential liquidity constraints[65] Economic Indicators - The US Economic Surprise Index fell to -23.3, reflecting weaker-than-expected economic data, which may impact market sentiment and currency strength[60] - China's Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded a slight increase to 50.30, but remains below the March peak of 54.75, indicating a slowdown in economic expansion[45]
大类资产周报：资产配置与金融工程地缘风险下的资产再平衡-20250623
Guoyuan Securities·2025-06-23 11:14