南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second quarter, the pattern of oversupply in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue, with no significant increase in production during the off - season on the demand side. The supply - side production shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The current main contradiction in the market is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a need to be vigilant against the possible spiral decline of ore and lithium salt prices [3]. - There are some positive factors, such as positive macro - policies that may stimulate power demand growth in industries like robotics, low - altitude economy, and AI, and a higher probability of supply - side disturbances as lithium ore and lithium salt prices decline [4]. - There are also negative factors, including high future production expectations for lithium ore, high inventories suppressing ore prices, high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt, and the delay of production capacity clearance due to industrial technology upgrades [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price and Market Conditions - The price range prediction for the lithium carbonate main contract is an oscillation between 59,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 18.9% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 17.2% [2]. - The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 59,120 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan (0.37%) from the previous day; the trading volume is 259,487 lots, down 70,833 lots (- 21.44%); the open interest is 356,954 lots, up 2,607 lots (0.74%) [9]. - For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 58,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the trading volume is 28,178 lots, up 12,033 lots (74.53%), and the open interest is 76,082 lots, up 5,069 lots (7.14%) [9]. - Regarding the lithium carbonate monthly spreads: LC07 - 08 is 360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 21.74%); LC08 - 11 is 560 yuan/ton (unchanged); LC09 - 11 is 320 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan (220%); LC11 - 12 is - 320 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (20%) [15]. Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt Prices - For lithium ore, the average daily prices of various types have different changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 1.65%); the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 3 - 4%) is 2,175 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan (- 1.81%) [19]. - For lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, the average daily prices also show declines. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,350 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan (- 0.77%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 59,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan (- 0.75%) [22]. Downstream Product Prices - For downstream products, the prices of some products have changed. The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 30,175 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan (- 0.58%); the average price of low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate is 26,520 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (- 0.38%) [34]. Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, it is recommended to short 70% of the lithium carbonate futures (LC2509) to lock in profits, sell 30% of call options, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. - For procurement management, when there are future procurement plans and concerns about raw material price increases, it is recommended to buy lithium carbonate forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 26,779, a decrease of 1,014 from the previous day. Some warehouses have changes in warehouse receipt quantities, such as Wugang Wuxi, which decreased by 300 lots, and Shanghai Guochu, which decreased by 90 lots [37].