股指期货日报-20250623

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's June interest rate decision and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East have influenced the market, and the A - share market is in a sideways - oscillating state. Investors should be patient and wait for better trading opportunities [14][15] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview and Market Review 1.1 Overall Market Performance on the Day - On June 19, 2025, the three major A - share indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.79% to 3362.11 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 1.21% to 10051.97 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.36% to 2026.82 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 1.2506 trillion yuan, an increase of 59.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The four major stock index futures also adjusted after closing [2] 1.2 Futures Market Data - IF2506 closed at 3840.4 points, down 30.8 points or 0.80%, with a trading volume of 43,781 lots, an open interest of 37,486 lots, a daily decrease of 18,151 lots, and a capital outflow of 5.146 billion yuan. IF2507 closed at 3798.4 points, down 31.4 points or 0.82%, with a trading volume of 28,537 lots, an open interest of 55,095 lots, a daily increase of 1,248 lots, and a capital inflow of 3.315 billion yuan [7] 1.3 Spot Market Data - On June 19, 2025, the overall index price was stable. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3843.09 points, down 31.88 points from the previous trading day [9] 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors 2.1 Comments on Important News and Events on the Day - The Fed announced to keep the current interest rate unchanged in its June interest rate decision, but the number of officials supporting two interest rate cuts this year decreased, showing a marginal hawkish signal. The Fed also lowered the GDP growth forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation forecast to 3%, indicating increased concerns about the risk of stagflation in the US economy [12][13] - On June 18, the CSRC Chairman Wu Qing proposed three major reform directions at the Lujiazui Forum, including deepening the "1 + 6" reform of the STAR Market, enabling the third set of standards for the ChiNext Board, and implementing new regulations on mergers and acquisitions. These policies are expected to make the A - share market more active in the capital operations of technology - innovation enterprises [12] 2.2 Tracking and Interpretation of Related Data - In the overseas market, the US dollar index rose, the US Treasury bond yield first fell and then rose, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield slightly declined, the prices of gold and crude oil futures both fell, the three major US stock indices showed a differentiated trend, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index declined, and the offshore RMB exchange rate rose after fluctuations. The market focus remains on the situation in the Middle East [12][13]