Report Information - Report Name: Zhengxin Futures Copper Weekly Report 20250623 [2] - Researchers: Wang Yanhong, Zhang Jiefu [2] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices showed a volatile trend during the week. The increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% strengthened the expectation of copper tariffs, but this factor was not strong enough to drive the market up continuously. The US economy is waiting for "hard data", with the manufacturing sector declining, and the employment situation needs attention. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive", but the interest rate remains at a restrictive level. There is a probability that the next cut could be a "recessionary cut", which depends on "hard data" to signal recession risks [4][85]. - The issue of low refining processing fees due to raw material supply remains severe, but it has not restricted the actual output of refined copper, with May's refined copper output reaching a new high. Domestic demand is seasonally weakening, the copper product operating rate is declining, and the momentum for further reduction of social inventory is weakening. Currently, the copper fundamentals mainly focus on international trade games, and the siphon effect of US copper prices is leading to a continuous reduction of LME copper inventory [4][85]. - Overall, after reaching a high, copper prices retreated with reduced positions. The macro - situation remains under pressure, and the fundamental demand has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on selling CALL options and moderately increase positions in buying PUT options for far - month contracts [4][85]. Summary by Directory Macro - level - In May, the European manufacturing PMI was stable, and the US manufacturing PMI rebounded. The eurozone's May manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.4%, up 0.4% from the previous month; Germany's manufacturing increased by 0.4% to 48.8%, and France's by 0.8% to 49.5%. The US May S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 52.3%, up 2.1 percentage points month - on - month. China's May manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, but still below the boom - bust line for two consecutive months. New orders and new export orders remained weak, and the demand side was under pressure due to tariff games [11]. - The US economy is waiting for "hard data", with the manufacturing sector declining. The Fed's previous three interest rate cuts were "preventive", but the interest rate remains restrictive. There is a possibility of a "recessionary cut" based on future "hard data" [4][12][85]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - Global copper mine production: In December 2024, global copper mine production was 2.096 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.96%. From January to December 2024, the global copper concentrate output was 22.835 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54%. In March 2025, global copper mine production was 1.969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.69%. In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons [20]. - China's copper concentrate imports: In December 2024, China imported 2.522 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a month - on - month increase of 12.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative import was 28.114 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.1%. In May 2025, the copper concentrate import data was lower than expected, with imports of about 2.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.09% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%, slightly lower than the monthly average of 2.485 million tons from January to May 2025 [25]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - On June 20, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 44.78 US dollars per dry ton, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars per dry ton from the previous period. The SMM nine - port copper concentrate inventory on June 20 was 712,100 physical tons, a decrease of 100,700 physical tons from the previous period. The long - term processing fee benchmark for 2025 was set at 21.25 US dollars per ton and 2.125 cents per pound [29]. Refined Copper Production - In May, SMM's China electrolytic copper production increased by 12,600 tons month - on - month, a rise of 1.12%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.86%. From January to May, the cumulative production increased by 544,800 tons, an increase of 11.09%. In June, it is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production will decrease by 7,200 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.63%, and a year - on - year increase of 126,100 tons, an increase of 12.55% [37]. Refined Copper Imports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.49%. In December 2024, the import was 370,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 18.88%. In April 2025, China imported 250,000 tons of electrolytic copper, a month - on - month decrease of 19.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.97% [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In December 2024, China's import of copper scrap and waste was 217,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year increase of 9%. In 2024, the cumulative import was 2.25 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.26%. In April 2025, the import of copper scrap and waste was 204,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.46%. From January to April, the cumulative import was 777,000 tons, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.81% [46]. Refined - Scrap Spread - This week, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 24.12%, a decrease of 4.91 percentage points from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 16.86 percentage points. The average spread between refined and scrap copper rods was 1,174 yuan per ton this week, a decrease of 154 yuan month - on - month. The market shows a two - way suppression pattern of "shrinking terminal demand - tightening raw material supply" [49]. Consumption - end - Power and Grid Investment: In 2024, from January to December, the cumulative power investment was 1.168722 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.14%, and the grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.26%. In 2025, from January to April, the cumulative power investment was 193.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%, and the grid investment was 140.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6% [53]. - Air - conditioning: In December 2024, the monthly air - conditioning output was 23.695 million units, a year - on - year increase of 12.9%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative air - conditioning output was 265.9844 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to May 2025, the air - conditioning output was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, and the industry entered the off - production season [55]. - Automobiles: In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.649 million and 2.686 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and 3.7%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.6% and 11.2%. From January to May, the production and sales were 12.826 million and 12.748 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 10.9%. For new energy vehicles, in May, the production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9%. From January to May, the production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% [60]. - Real Estate: In 2024, from January to December, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%, and the new construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In May 2025, the real - estate completion area was 184 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%, and the new construction area decreased by 22.8% year - on - year [62]. Other Elements Inventory - As of June 20, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 401,200 tons, a weekly decrease of 11,200 tons. The LME copper inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 99,200 tons, the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,129 tons to 100,800 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 5,150 tons to a five - year high of 201,200 tons. As of June 19, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 64,300 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons from last week [67]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of June 10, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 26,351 lots, a weekly increase of 2,257 lots. The non - commercial long position was 72,101 lots, a weekly increase of 852 lots, and the non - commercial short position was 45,750 lots, a weekly decrease of 1,405 lots [69]. Premium and Discount - As of June 20, the LME copper spot premium was 274.99 US dollars per ton. After the contract change of SHFE copper on June 20, the spot premium continued to decline. Next week, the SHFE copper spot premium will be further pressured [79]. Basis - As of June 20, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Copper No. 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 740 yuan per ton [81].
铜周报：地缘冲突加剧，铜价谨慎对待-20250623
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-23 11:17