Report Information - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Weekly Report 2025 - 06 - 23: Off - season Market Continues, Black Narrow - range Fluctuation" [1] - Research Team: Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group [2] - Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [3] Core Views Steel - Price: Spot prices rose slightly, while the futures market fluctuated at a low level [7] - Supply: Blast furnace production stopped falling and rebounded, while electric furnace production continued to decline [7] - Inventory: The de - stocking speed of building materials slowed down, while that of plates accelerated [7] - Demand: Building materials demand declined month - on - month, and there was great downward pressure on the domestic demand for plates [7] - Profit: Blast furnace profits remained high, while electric furnace profits continued to narrow [7] - Basis: The basis narrowed slightly, and all reverse arbitrage positions were closed at a profit [7] - Summary: In May, the macro data was weak, and the market was worried about the drag on consumption data after the slowdown of national subsidies. The overall supply increased month - on - month. The market still showed off - season characteristics. It is expected that the price will return to the off - season fluctuating and falling trend. Maintain the mid - term short - selling idea [7] Iron Ore - Price: Ore prices fluctuated, and the futures market rebounded at a low level [7] - Supply: Shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, and arrivals also weakened [7] - Demand: Blast furnace production increased, and demand improved month - on - month [7] - Inventory: Port inventories decreased slightly, while downstream inventories increased slightly [7] - Shipping: Shipping costs both declined [7] - Spread: The futures spread narrowed, and the spread declined slightly [7] - Summary: Last week, the supply - demand situation improved slightly month - on - month. Considering the drag of off - season finished products, the probability of further iron ore price increases is low. Maintain the long - term bearish view [7] Summary by Directory Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Shanghai rebar spot prices and hot - rolled coil spot prices showed certain trends. Last week, rebar futures fluctuated sideways, with the main contract rising 0.77% to close at 2992. Spot prices rose slightly, with rebar in East China reported at 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan week - on - week [10][13] 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, an increase of 0.41 percentage points week - on - week. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, an increase of 0.21 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average hot metal output was 242.18 tons, an increase of 0.57 tons week - on - week [16] - Electric furnace production: The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.54%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points week - on - week. The average operating rate was 70.93%, a decrease of 3.08 percentage points week - on - week [24] - Product output: Rebar production increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.8 tons to 325.5 tons week - on - week [27] 1.3 Demand - Building materials: According to the survey data of Centennial Building, as of June 17, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.05%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The overall terminal demand was gradually declining [30] - Plates: From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 706,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month decrease of 9%. The manufacturing demand was expected to weaken [33] 1.4 Profit - Long - process: The profitability rate of steel mills was 59.31%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. Long - process steel mills benefited from the four - round coke price cut and still had high profits [38] - Electric furnace: As of the 20th, the average profit of sample electric arc furnace steel mills was - 132 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was - 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton day - on - day [38] 1.5 Inventory - Building materials: The total inventory of five major steel products was 1,338.89 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.67 tons. Rebar inventory was still being de - stocked, but the speed slowed down [41] - Plates: The hot - rolled coil inventory - to - sales ratio decreased by 0.4 days to 7.2 days. Both factory and social inventories changed from previous accumulation to de - stocking [44] 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar 01 contract narrowed significantly. It was recommended to close reverse arbitrage positions at around 80 last week, and all positions have been closed at a profit [47] 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was 7, an increase of 6 week - on - week. The contango situation was completely reversed. The near - term contract faces off - season pressure, and the far - term contract also faces risks [50] 1.8 Inter - product - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 124, an increase of 11 week - on - week. The spot spread was 140, an increase of 50 week - on - week. There is no obvious driving force for the spread to continue narrowing [53] Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Last week, iron ore prices fluctuated, with the main contract closing flat at 703. Spot prices rose synchronously, with PB fines at Qingdao Port rising 1 yuan to 710 yuan/ton [58] 2.2 Supply - Shipments: Global iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month. The weekly average shipments from Australia were 2043.6 tons, and those from Brazil were 759.2 tons [61][64] - Arrivals: The arrivals at 47 ports decreased month - on - month. The current value was 2517.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 156 tons [67] 2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased. The current output was 242.18 tons/day, an increase of 0.57 tons/day week - on - week [70] - Speculative demand: The average daily port trading volume last week was 95.9 tons, an increase of 5.9 tons week - on - week. Downstream steel mills resumed production, and there was still overall restocking demand [73] 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports decreased month - on - month. The current total inventory was 14433.56 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 70 tons [76] - Downstream inventory: On June 19, the total inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills was 2719.47 tons, an increase of 56.73 tons from the previous period [79] 2.5 Shipping - The freight from Western Australia to China was 9.1 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.77 US dollars week - on - week. The freight from Brazil to China was 22.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.08 US dollars/ton week - on - week [82] 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread was 29, a narrowing of 1.5 week - on - week. The 09 contract was at a discount of 28, a narrowing of 6 last week [85] - The coke - to - ore ratio was 1.99, and the rebar - to - ore ratio was 4.26. The two ratios changed little, and the spread trading fluidity was not high [88]
钢矿周度报告2025-06-23：淡季行情延续，黑色窄幅震荡-20250623
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-23 11:22