有色日报：有色震荡运行-20250623

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Copper: Today, copper prices showed a weak oscillation, rising in the afternoon and then falling back. Despite the tense Middle - East situation, it didn't significantly impact domestic risk appetite. On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 131,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from last week. After the price decline last week, the industry's replenishment willingness increased, and the 7 - 8 month spread strengthened. Overseas, the premium of LME copper has been strengthening, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper. If the Middle - East situation doesn't escalate, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise [5]. - Aluminum: In the morning, aluminum prices rose and then fell back, continuing to rise during the day. The weakening of the 7 - 8 month spread last week indicates a weakening industrial support. On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 462,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week. The recent price fluctuations with increasing positions may suggest an increase in the hedging willingness of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants. Technically, the main futures price broke below the 5 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 10 - day moving average [6]. - Nickel: Today, nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, and the main futures price once fell below 117,000. Short - term macro conditions have turned cold, and nickel's fundamentals are weak. Upstream, nickel mines in the Philippines and Indonesia remain strong; downstream, stainless steel is weak, and nickel sulfate is stable. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the support at the low point in early April [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Copper: On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 131,900 tons, a decrease of 17,400 tons from June 19 and 10,500 tons from June 16. Recently, 188 tons of copper from the Democratic Republic of the Congo passed customs at Ningbo Customs and entered production at Jin Tian Copper Industry. Jin Tian Copper Industry's output value in 2024 exceeded 120 billion yuan, a 12.4% increase. From January to May this year, Ningbo's copper imports from Africa were worth 9.02 billion yuan, an increase of 78.8% [9]. - Aluminum: On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 462,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week and 12,000 tons from June 19 [6][10]. - Nickel: On June 23, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE Nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premiums and discounts were as follows: Jinchuan electrolytic nickel +2,600 - +2,900 yuan/ton, Russian nickel +500 - +700 yuan/ton, nickel beans - 1,000 - - 800 yuan/ton, Bofeng nickel - 50 - +50 yuan/ton, Sumitomo nickel +2,400 - +2,500 yuan/ton, and Norwegian nickel +2,700 - +2,800 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - Copper: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, month spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. - Aluminum: The report contains charts of aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, month spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][28][30]. - Nickel: The report presents charts of nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, month spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].