Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report points out that after a rapid rise, the upward momentum of the oil market has weakened. It warns of potential high - level pullbacks due to changes in events and the dissipation of market sentiment. It also provides specific analyses and trading strategies for different oil varieties [6][10][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The 2509 closing prices for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 8126, 8520, and 9721 respectively. The spot basis varies by region and variety. For example, the basis for soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 240 [4]. - Month - to - Month Spreads: The 9 - 1 month - to - month spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 68, 12, and 87 respectively, with corresponding drops of 6, 20, and 23 [4]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: The 09 - contract spreads for Y - P, OI - Y, and OI - P are 394, 1595, and 1201 respectively, with changes of - 14, 0, and 11. The oil - to - meal ratio is 2.68, with an increase of 0.02 [4]. - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia has a 1013 (236) profit, and the FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil is 1106, with a profit of - 1224 [4]. - Weekly Commercial Inventories: In the 24th week of 2025, the soybean oil inventory is 37.3 million tons, palm oil is 41.0 million tons, and rapeseed oil is 75.8 million tons [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - International Market: From June 1st - 20th, 2025, the yield increased by 2.67%, OER decreased by 0.03%, and production increased by 2.5% [6]. - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm Oil: Futures prices fluctuated slightly lower. The national commercial inventory is 43.49 million tons, a 6.18% increase from last week. The import profit gap has widened, and the basis is stable with a slight decline [6]. - Soybean Oil: Futures prices fluctuated slightly lower. The soybean crushing volume last week was 238.42 million tons, and the inventory is 88.63 million tons, a 4.64% increase from last week. The basis is stable [6]. - Rapeseed Oil: Futures prices fluctuated slightly lower. The coastal crushing volume last week was 5.35 million tons, and the inventory is 75.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week. The import profit gap has widened, and the basis is stable with a slight increase [10]. 3. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: After a rapid rise, the upward momentum of the oil market has weakened. Be cautious of high - level pullbacks due to event changes and sentiment dissipation [12]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [13]. - Options: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [14]. 4. Relevant Attachments The report provides 8 figures, including those related to spot basis, month - to - month spreads, cross - variety spreads, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [17][20].
银河期货油脂日报-20250623
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-06-23 11:29