美元债双周报（25年第25周）：中东地缘冲突升级，美联储6月按兵不动-20250623

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Neutral - Maintain" [5] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market in the current period is "Neutral" [1] Core Viewpoints - The escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has increased uncertainty, which may lead to a re - evaluation of the global supply chain, energy prices, and risk premiums, and release the risk of global asset re - pricing [1] - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in June, maintaining a high - interest rate environment to signal a wait - and - see approach and leaving room for rate cuts within the year. There are significant internal differences in the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the policy path lacks clarity [2] - In April, the US experienced a large - scale net capital outflow, and international funds' willingness to allocate US bonds weakened [2] - The market's implied rate - cut expectation remains at two times within the year, likely in September and December [3] - US Treasury yields have risen across the board, and the term spread has slightly narrowed [3] - Investors are advised to respond flexibly to policy and geopolitical risks, prioritize medium - and short - duration bonds, and be cautious when allocating long - duration bonds [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs US Treasury Benchmark Interest Rates - The report presents figures on 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields, the yield curve, bid - to - cover ratios for various maturities, issuance winning bid rates for 2 - 30 - year US Treasuries, monthly issuance amounts, and the number of implied rate cuts in the federal funds rate futures market [13][14][19][21] US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - The report shows figures related to US inflation year - on - year trends, the federal government's annual cumulative fiscal deficit, the economic surprise index, ISM PMI, consumer confidence index, financial conditions index, housing rent growth rate, number of unemployment benefit claimants, hourly wage year - on - year growth rate, non - farm payroll data, real estate new housing approval, start, and sales year - on - year growth rates, personal consumption expenditure year - on - year growth rate, breakeven inflation expectations, and non - farm industry contributions [25][27][29][31][38][43][44][50][54] Exchange Rates - The report includes figures on the one - year trend and two - week changes of non - US currencies, the Sino - US sovereign bond yield spread, the relationship between the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield, the relationship between the US dollar index and the RMB index, and the change in the one - year US dollar - RMB forward exchange cost [55][56][62][64] Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The report provides figures on the price trends of US dollar bonds, the combined price trends of US and European dollar bonds, the price trends of global investment - grade dollar bonds, the price trends of global high - yield dollar bonds and Chinese domestic bonds, the two - week return comparison of the global bond market, the US Treasury volatility MOVE index and the VIX fear index, and the price changes of US Treasury ETFs with different maturities [67][71][74][76] Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - The report shows figures on the return trends of Chinese - issued US dollar bonds since 2023 (by rating and industry), the yield and spread trends of investment - grade and high - yield Chinese - issued US dollar bonds, the two - week returns (by rating and industry), the net financing amount trend, and the maturity scale of each sector [79][83][85][87][91] Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies carried out 12 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 3 rating upgrades, 2 rating revocations, 4 initial ratings, and 3 rating downgrades [92]