政策引导下，猪价偏强震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bullish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the average weight of commercial pigs sold by sample breeding enterprises has decreased for two consecutive weeks, the standard - fat price difference is basically flat, and the proportion of large pigs sold has increased slightly [3] - After relevant meetings in May and June, the national policy aims to reduce the number of fertile sows by 1 million to 3.95 billion, optimize pig production, and guide the reduction of slaughter weight. The policy is a regulation for the entire pig - breeding industry, and leading enterprises have taken the lead in reducing the inventory of fertile sows and lowering weight [3] - In early June, there was the first real - sense domestic frozen pork purchase in the central reserve this year. Policy regulation has a short - term positive impact on market sentiment, but long - term effects depend on policy implementation [3] - Self - breeding and self - raising profits are near the break - even point, and the pig - grain ratio is at the average level of the same period in the past four years. The downward space of futures is limited due to the small premium of the basis [3] - The near - far spread of live hog futures is in a narrow - range shock, and the net short position of institutional investors in the main contract of live hog futures is in a shock state [3] - Under policy guidance, it is more likely that live hog prices will remain stable in the next 2 - 3 months. Operators should dynamically construct a bull spread for the September contract of live hogs [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Volume Analysis - It includes analysis of live hog spot price, basis, spread, and futures institutional net position. Data sources are Wind and the research institute of Zhengxin Futures [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - It covers the inventory of fertile sows, piglet supply, live hog slaughter, and standard - fat price difference. Data sources are the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Wind, and Mysteel [16][19][23][27] Demand Analysis - It involves live hog slaughter, frozen product inventory, and substitutes. Data sources are Mysteel and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [29][32][36] Profit Analysis - It includes breeding profit and pig - grain ratio. Data source is Mysteel [39][42]