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铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250623
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-06-23 12:02

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to remain weak in the long - term due to factors such as cost reduction expectations, demand off - season, and negative feedback in the black market. However, in the short - term, there may be a limited rebound due to low valuations and reduced positions, and opportunities to short after the rebound should be awaited [3]. - The negative impact of high inventory and high supply on ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is gradually weakening, and they will continue the de - stocking trend, but the de - stocking speed has slowed down [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price Forecast and Hedging - Price Range Forecast: The monthly price range forecast for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility for ferrosilicon is 17.44% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 44.2%, and for ferromanganese, it is 22.21% with a 3 - year historical percentile of 55.4% [2]. - Hedging Strategies: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, short SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts at a 15% hedging ratio when ferrosilicon is at 6200 - 6250 and ferromanganese is at 6400 - 6500. For procurement management with low inventory, buy SF2509 and SM2509 futures contracts at a 25% hedging ratio when ferrosilicon is at 5100 - 5200 and ferromanganese is at 5300 - 5400 [2]. Core Contradictions - Long - term Weakness: Affected by factors such as steel mill price pressure, cost weakening, and the off - season of terminal steel demand, ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to remain weak. The cost is expected to decline due to potential electricity price cuts and the arrival of the southern rainy season, and the negative feedback from the demand off - season in the black market also adds to the downward pressure [3]. - De - stocking Trend: The high - inventory and high - supply situation is improving, and the supply side maintains low - level supply with less pressure. The de - stocking trend will continue, but the speed has slowed down [3]. - Short - term Rebound: With the decline in positions and low valuations, there may be a short - term rebound, but the rebound space is limited [3]. 利多 Factors - Ferrosilicon: High steel mill profitability maintains high molten iron production, which supports ferrosilicon demand. Low valuations, bottom - level profits, and a 2.71% week - on - week decrease in enterprise inventory to 6.81 tons also suggest potential for a rebound [4]. - Ferromanganese: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. The de - stocking trend, low valuations, a 3.06% week - on - week decrease in warehouse receipts to 47.48 tons, and a 0.73% week - on - week decrease in total inventory to 68.07 tons are positive factors [5]. 利空 Factors - Ferrosilicon: The weekly production rate increased by 1.34% to 32.69%, and the weekly output increased by 2.93% to 9.79 tons. The weak coal market also implies a potential further decline in electricity cost [6]. - Ferromanganese: The long - term weakness in the real estate market and doubts about steel demand growth lead to weak demand. The weekly production rate increased by 1.09% to 36.39%, the weekly output increased by 1.85% to 17.66 tons, and the enterprise inventory increased by 5.1% to 20.59 tons. The July quotation of manganese ore decreased [7]. Daily Data - Ferrosilicon: On June 23, 2025, the spot prices in different regions remained stable compared to June 20. The basis in Ningxia was 150, and the warehouse receipts decreased significantly by 12535 compared to June 20 [8]. - Ferromanganese: On June 23, 2025, the spot prices in different regions showed some fluctuations. The basis in Inner Mongolia was 234, and the warehouse receipts increased by 49 compared to June 20 [9][10]. Seasonal Data - Multiple seasonal data charts for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are provided, including market price seasonality, futures basis seasonality, and futures spread seasonality, which can help analyze historical price trends and fluctuations [11][25][36].