Huaxin Securities·2025-06-23 12:17Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold industry, copper industry, aluminum industry, tin industry, and antimony industry [11]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its interest rate cuts, which will support gold prices [5]. - Short-term demand for copper and aluminum may weaken, but long-term supply-demand dynamics are expected to remain tight, supporting prices [11]. - Tin prices are anticipated to fluctuate due to weak supply and demand conditions, while antimony prices may stabilize due to supply constraints [11]. Summary by Sections Gold - The Federal Reserve's dot plot indicates a potential interest rate cut within the year, which is expected to drive gold prices higher [5]. - Current gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, including inflation and employment rates [4]. Copper - Recent data shows a mixed performance in copper prices, with LME copper closing at $9,652 per ton, reflecting a 0.82% increase [38]. - Domestic copper inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential supply tightness [38]. - The report notes a decline in downstream operating rates, suggesting a weakening demand in the short term [8]. Aluminum - Domestic aluminum prices are currently at 20,700 RMB per ton, with a slight decrease observed [39]. - The report highlights that while short-term demand may be weak, the long-term supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight [11]. - Operating rates in the aluminum sector are also showing signs of decline, particularly in construction-related applications [39]. Tin - The report indicates that domestic refined tin prices are at 263,070 RMB per ton, with a slight decrease noted [40]. - Supply and demand conditions are weak, leading to expectations of price fluctuations [10]. Antimony - Antimony prices are currently stable at 189,500 RMB per ton, with many smelting plants ceasing operations due to supply issues [11]. - The demand for antimony remains stable, particularly in the flame retardant and photovoltaic sectors [11]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in each sector, including Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining for gold; Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum for copper; and Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum for aluminum [12][15].