2025年大豆期货半年度行情展望：供需双增，震荡为主

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the second half of 2025, the US soybean futures will maintain a range - bound pattern, with the core operating range between 900 - 1150 cents per bushel [2]. - The supply is loose, which suppresses the upper limit; the cost provides support at the lower limit; and there is a structural differentiation in the inventory - to - consumption ratio [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 US Soybean Futures Trend Review - January - February: South American weather factors and Sino - US trade friction expectations jointly pushed up prices. Adverse weather in Argentina and Brazil affected supply, and Chinese crushers' concentrated purchases of US soybeans due to potential trade risks increased demand [7]. - March: The market showed "expected - realization" characteristics, and the improvement of Brazil's harvesting progress led to price corrections. After the tariff announcements, the price first declined and then rebounded, and later entered a sideways - shock pattern [7]. - April: The downward adjustment of the new - crop area estimate and the end of the trade - war negative news led to a V - shaped reversal in price and then maintained a shock. The expected reduction in the US soybean planting area and the market's expectation of tariff reduction drove the price movement [8]. - May: The easing of trade tensions led to narrow price fluctuations. The Sino - US agreement improved the trade outlook and increased the market's expectation of China's demand recovery [8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Framework: A Volatile Pattern under the Game of Bulls and Bears 3.2.1 Supply Side: Structural Contradictions in the Loose Pattern - Global oilseeds: In the 2025/26 season, the global oilseed market will see a mild increase in both supply and demand. The total output of seven core oilseed varieties is expected to reach 692.1 million tons (+2.2% year - on - year), and the total consumption is expected to reach 687.65 million tons (+2.9% year - on - year). The inventory - to - consumption ratio will remain at 20.8%. The market is expected to continue the range - bound trend [13]. - Global soybeans: In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean output and consumption will both increase. The output is expected to reach 426.82 million tons, and the consumption will reach 424.05 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 20.3%, but it is still at a relatively high level, indicating an overall supply - surplus situation [20]. - Brazil: The soybean harvesting area is expected to increase to 48.8 million hectares, and the output is expected to reach a record 175 million tons. Domestic consumption and exports are also expected to increase. However, the final output depends on the weather during the growing season [22][23]. - US: The soybean harvesting area is expected to decrease by about 1.35 million hectares. The output is expected to be 111.8 million tons, a slight decrease. Exports are expected to decrease, while domestic consumption is expected to increase. The inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 6.7%, indicating a tight - balance supply - demand situation [26]. - Argentina: In the 2025/26 season, the soybean output is expected to be 48.5 million tons, and the domestic consumption is expected to be 50.5 million tons. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 13.2%, indicating a balanced supply - demand relationship [29]. 3.2.2 Demand Side: The Rigid Growth of Protein Meal Consumption - The feed protein raw material supply pattern is diversified, with soybean meal accounting for 70% of the market share. In the 2025/26 season, the global protein raw material consumption will maintain a steady growth trend. The total consumption is expected to exceed 394.78 million tons, an increase of 14.82 million tons (+3.9% year - on - year) [33][34]. - Since 2020, the global protein meal consumption has shown a differentiated growth trend. Rapeseed meal has the highest consumption growth rate, and emerging economies have become the main driving force for the growth of protein meal consumption [40]. 3.3 Trading Strategies: Trading Opportunities in a Volatile Market 3.3.1 US Soybean Prices in H2 2025: Mainly Sideways - Shocking - The global oilseed market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and the overall supply is relatively loose. The high - yield pressure in South America and the cost support in North America form a game of bulls and bears. It is expected that the US soybean prices will maintain a range - bound trend in the second half of 2025 [42]. 3.3.2 Trading Strategies - Strategy 1: Band - buying based on cost support. Buy at the level of 900 - 950 cents per bushel, set the stop - loss at around 880 cents per bushel, and the target price at 1100 - 1150 cents per bushel [44]. - Strategy 2: A positive spread strategy of buying January and selling May. Due to the tight US soybean balance sheet and the probability of Brazil's continued expansion of planting, this strategy is highly feasible, and the better buying times are July and October [45].