2025年棉花期货半年度行情展望：低价提振棉花需求

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, both domestic and international cotton markets currently lack obvious upward drivers and are likely to maintain a volatile trend [2][3][68] - It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunities under the expectation of a looser domestic supply after October, specifically the Zhengzhou Cotton Futures 11 - 1 reverse spread [3][70] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 2025 H1 Cotton Futures Market Review - In H1 2025, Zhengzhou Cotton Futures mainly showed a volatile trend, with fluctuations mainly affected by the sentiment of the domestic financial market driven by macro - factors. There was a rebound before the Spring Festival, a sharp decline after the Tomb - Sweeping Festival due to the US tariff policy, and another rebound after the China - US peace talks in May [6] 2025 H2 Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation Analysis Global Cotton Supply - In H2 2025, global cotton supply is expected to remain abundant. The bumper harvests of Brazilian and Australian cotton have laid the foundation for a loose supply. The market will mainly focus on US cotton production and also consider other major producing countries. Only when the combined production reduction of major producing countries exceeds expectations will the global supply tighten in H1 2026 [7][8][9] - Brazil: In 2025, Brazilian cotton production continued to increase, but the rising cost may slow down the area growth in 2026. The export situation in H2 2025 will affect farmers' planting willingness in 2026 [12][13][15] - US: The area and yield of US cotton in the 2025/26 season are uncertain. It is necessary to wait for the area outlook report at the end of June and pay attention to the weather from June to August. If the yield is flat year - on - year, the total supply will increase, and exports are expected to rebound. The export is also affected by economic and trade negotiations [20][23][25] - Other Major Producing Countries: The cotton production of India, Pakistan, Turkey, and Australia in the 2025/26 season is uncertain. If the production decreases by more than 400,000 tons year - on - year as estimated by USDA, it will benefit the exports of Brazil and the US, mainly in H1 2026 [30][32] Global Cotton Demand - From the macro - environment to micro - data, there is no optimistic outlook for global cotton demand. The instability of the global economy and international trade has a negative impact on cotton demand. The terminal's replenishment demand is not optimistic, and the direct import demand mainly depends on China [35][37][39] 2025 H2 China Cotton Market Supply - Demand Analysis China Cotton Supply - The market is worried that the domestic cotton inventory will be tight at the end of the 2024/25 season, but the inventory reduction speed may slow down from June to September. The new - year cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to remain high, and the national cotton area is also expected to increase [47][50][51] China Cotton Consumption - Since the 2024/25 season, the apparent consumption of domestic cotton has been better than expected. As long as the cotton price remains low, the demand in H2 2025 will remain stable. The terminal demand for textile and clothing has slowed down in terms of domestic sales and changed in terms of exports. The direct demand for cotton has increased due to capacity expansion and low prices [54][62][64]