豆粕周报：美豆冲高回落，连粕高位震荡-20250623

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, soybean meal continued to rebound. The fundamentals of US soybeans are mixed; from May to July, the supply of soybeans in China is sufficient, the operation of oil mills has returned to normal, and the overall supply of soybean meal is loose. Currently, the downstream demand for picking up goods is strong, and the spot price shows a volatile trend. Recently, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has been firm, supporting the relatively strong import cost. In the medium to long term, although the sown area of new - season US soybeans has been reduced, the weather has been continuously favorable, and the decline in US soybean production may be limited. At the same time, the development of Sino - US tariffs is positive for forward US soybeans. It is still recommended to go long on far - month soybean meal on dips. Specifically, continue to go long on soybean meal 09 on dips [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main Views - This week, soybean meal continued to rebound. The cost side of US soybeans is mixed, with favorable weather but a decline in the excellent - good rate. In China, the arrival of soybeans is sufficient, the operating rate of oil mills has returned to normal, and the supply of soybean meal is loose. The downstream demand for picking up goods is strong, which supports the spot price. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills is in the accumulation cycle [6]. - The strategy is to go long on far - month soybean meal on dips, specifically continue to go long on soybean meal 09 on dips [6]. 3.2 Market Review - As of June 20, the closing price of CBOT soybeans was 1067.25 cents per bushel, down 1.25 points from last week, a weekly decline of 0.12%. The closing price of M2509 soybean meal was 3067 yuan per ton, up 26 points from last week, a weekly increase of 0.85% [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Weather: In the next two weeks, there will be sufficient rainfall in the US soybean - producing areas, and the temperature will gradually decrease [13]. - US Soybean Sowing: As of the week of June 15, the excellent - good rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 68%; the sowing rate was 93%, lower than the market expectation of 95% [13][21]. - US Soybean Exports: As of the week of June 12, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/2025 season were 540,000 tons, and for the 2025/2026 season were 75,000 tons [13][25]. - Brazilian Soybeans: The estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in June is 14.08 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons year - on - year. As the sales pressure of Brazilian soybeans is released, the near - month soybean premium has gradually stabilized [13][30]. - Supply - Import: In the 24th week (June 7 - June 13), the arrival of soybeans at domestic full - sample oil mills totaled about 2.1125 million tons [13][34]. - Demand - Pressing: In the 25th week (June 14 - June 20), the actual soybean pressing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.02%, 73,900 tons lower than expected [13][34]. - Transaction: In the 25th week, the transaction volume of soybean meal increased to 1.9623 million tons, an increase of 12.87%; the pick - up volume increased to 1.0395 million tons, an increase of 6.75% [13][39]. - Inventory - Oil Mill Inventory: In the 24th week, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills decreased to 5.996 million tons, a decrease of 106,900 tons from last week; the soybean meal inventory increased to 410,000 tons, an increase of 27,500 tons from last week [13][44]. 3.4 Spread Tracking The report only lists the spread types such as soybean meal regional basis (Jiangsu), oil - meal ratio, soybean meal 9 - 1 spread, and soybean - rapeseed meal spread, but no specific spread data and analysis are provided [47][49][52].