谐波减速器需求激增，国内企业拥抱国产化机遇

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the harmonic reducer industry, particularly driven by the growth in humanoid robots and industrial robots [3][4]. Core Insights - The primary downstream application for harmonic reducers is in industrial robots, which account for approximately 75% of the market. In 2023, the domestic consumption of harmonic reducers for industrial robots reached 669,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.64% [3][20]. - The demand for harmonic reducers is expected to surge due to the acceleration of humanoid robot production, with projections indicating a need for 14 million harmonic reducers by 2029, leading to a global market increment of 8.4 billion yuan [3][60]. - The supply side shows that major player Harmonic Drive has a cautious expansion plan, which may not meet the rising demand from humanoid robots, presenting opportunities for domestic manufacturers to capture market share [3][70][74]. Summary by Sections 1. Industrial Robots as the Main Downstream - Industrial robots are the largest application area for harmonic reducers, with a consumption share of 75% in 2023 [20][24]. - The average number of harmonic reducers used in industrial robots is around three [24]. 2. Accelerated Production of Humanoid Robots - The production of humanoid robots is entering a rapid growth phase, with major companies announcing mass production plans [34][58]. - The demand for harmonic reducers is projected to increase significantly, with estimates suggesting a need for 1.4 million units by 2029 due to the expected production of humanoid robots [60][61]. 3. Supply Side Dynamics - Harmonic Drive dominates the global market with an 85% share, while domestic player Green Harmonic holds 8% [62][66]. - Domestic manufacturers are actively expanding production capacity to meet the growing demand, with several companies planning significant increases in output [74][75]. 4. Companies to Watch - The report highlights several domestic companies with strong R&D capabilities and production expansion plans, including Green Harmonic, Reedy Drive, and others [3][74][77].