瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, the good quality rate of US corn is improving, and the trade relationship between China and the US has eased, leading to concerns about long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, the supply of corn is gradually tightening, and traders are reluctant to sell. However, the substitution effect of wheat and the expectation of imported corn supply have slowed down the upward momentum of corn prices. The recent upward trend of the corn futures market has also slowed down, and short - term participation is recommended [2] - For corn starch, affected by continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years. With reduced supply pressure and strong corn prices, the spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, and the industry inventory has slightly decreased. Recently, due to the slowdown in the rise of corn prices, the starch market has been volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of corn starch futures is 2694 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 92 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of CBOT corn is 429 cents/bushel, with a decrease of 3.75 cents; the total position of CBOT corn is 1614274 contracts, a decrease of 54876 contracts [2] - The net long position of non - commercial traders in CBOT corn is 95494 contracts, a decrease of 14435 contracts [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2421.96 yuan/ton, and the factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, with a production of 35.37 million tons; in Brazil, the sown area is 53 million hectares, with a production of 7.5 million tons; in China, the sown area is 295 million hectares, with a production of 44.3 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in southern ports is 11.9 million tons, and the inventory of deep - processed corn is 113.5 million tons; the inventory of corn in northern ports is 382 million tons, and the weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 132.8 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2664 million tons, and the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 83 yuan/ton; the processing profit in Hebei is - 35 yuan/ton, and in Jilin is - 94 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.32%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.49%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 1.62%, and that of at - the - money put options is 5.37% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of the week ending June 12, 2025, the net sales volume of US corn in the 2024/25 season was 903,800 tons, 14% higher than the previous week but 6% lower than the four - week average [2] - As of June 18, the harvest progress of Argentine corn in the 2024/25 season was 49.6%, only 2.9% higher than a week ago [2] - As of the week ending June 15, 2025, the good quality rate of US corn was 72%, higher than the market expectation of 71% [2]