银河期货航运日报-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The container shipping market is in a state of game regarding the peak season height and the timing of the peak. The spot freight rate is gradually rising, but the long - term height is affected by factors such as tariff trade wars. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may lead to an increase in costs and affect the market [4][6]. - The dry bulk shipping market is generally in a downward trend recently. The freight rate of Capesize ships is expected to decline in the short term, while the freight rate of medium - sized ships is expected to fluctuate. The conflict in the Middle East may affect the freight rate in the region [15][21]. - The oil tanker transportation market has seen a rise in sentiment due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts. The short - term freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical premiums, and the demand side is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period [25]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Data - Futures Disk: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of different EC contracts showed different trends. For example, EC2508 closed at 1875 points, down 0.79% from the previous day. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed. The monthly spread structure of different contract combinations also had corresponding price changes [2]. - Container Freight Rates: The weekly container freight rates of different routes showed different trends. For example, the SCFIS European line was 1937.14 points, up 14.11% week - on - week, while the SCFIS US West line was 2083.46 points, down 28.37% week - on - week [2]. Market Analysis and Strategy - Analysis: The market is in a game about the peak season height and timing. The spot freight rate is rising with the implementation of some price increases. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East may lead to an increase in costs such as insurance premiums [4][5][6]. - Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile, and the escalation of geopolitics may boost sentiment. For arbitrage, hold the 6 - 8 reverse spread and conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [9][10]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Data - Freight Index: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) fell 3.5% to 1689 points on June 20, with a weekly decline of 11%. The Capesize ship freight index (BCI) and the Panamax ship freight index (BPI) also declined, while the Supramax and Handysize ship freight indices rose [15][17]. - Shipping Data: From June 16 - 22, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3506.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 154.0 million tons. The expected soybean export volume in Brazil in June is 1437 million tons [16][18]. Market Analysis - The freight rate of Capesize ships is expected to decline in the short term due to the end of the Australian mining companies' fiscal year impulse. The freight rate of medium - sized ships is expected to fluctuate. The conflict in the Middle East may affect the regional freight rate [21]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Data - Freight Index: On June 20, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1054, up 1.35% week - on - week and down 10.75% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 708, down 0.42% week - on - week and down 11.06% year - on - year [24][25]. - Port Congestion: The number of global crude oil tanker port calls and product tanker port calls showed little change compared with the previous period [24]. Market Analysis - The short - term increase in freight rates is mainly driven by geopolitical premiums, and the demand side is relatively weak during the refinery maintenance period [25].