黄金行业周报：美联储暂不降息，金银比继续回落-20250623

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gold industry [4][63]. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve has decided not to cut interest rates, leading to a decline in gold prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor the geopolitical situation in the Middle East closely. In the medium to long term, persistent inflation in the U.S. suggests that the economy has entered a "stagflation-recession" phase, and the restructuring of the U.S. dollar credit system is becoming a trend, which may lead to a sustained increase in gold prices [4][63]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The precious metals sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.82 percentage points. The sector fell by 5.27% week-on-week, lagging behind the CSI 300 index and the Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index [4][14]. - As of June 20, the COMEX gold settlement price was $3,385.70 per ounce, down 1.94% week-on-week, while the COMEX silver settlement price was $36.02 per ounce, down 0.93% [4][13]. Economic Tracking - U.S. economic demand in May was below expectations, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 48.5, lower than the forecast of 49.2. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [4][27]. - The U.S. May CPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, below the market expectation of 2.5% [4][27]. Gold Investment Trends - As of May 2025, China's official gold reserves increased to 7,383 million ounces, marking the seventh consecutive month of increases. Additionally, gold ETF holdings rose by 11.51 tons to 1,388 tons [4][46][56]. - The current gold-silver ratio is 93.23, reflecting a decrease of 2.00 [4][59]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the gold industry, highlighting the potential for gold prices to rise amid ongoing inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [4][63].