在近期市场剧烈波动中，白银展现出显著的结构性投资机会

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that silver has entered a strong upward channel in price, and it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan/kg in Q3 2025. Despite short - term technical corrections due to factors like the Fed's hawkish stance and high inventory pressure, the rigid supply - demand gap and the momentum for gold - silver ratio repair remain unchanged. Investors are advised to build long positions in batches on dips to await the dual catalysts of macro - impacts and supply - demand gaps in the second half of the year [2][3][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Environment - The global monetary easing cycle continues. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, with a more than 50% probability in July and a 52% probability in September. The actual interest rate is on a downward trend, which will significantly reduce the opportunity cost of holding silver. China has released liquidity through MLF and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the ECB has cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with further cuts likely. Historically, silver has usually outperformed gold during interest - rate decline periods [3][4][5]. - Geopolitical risks are escalating. In the Middle East, the US military's air - strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the threat of a larger - scale attack, along with the discussion of closing the Hormuz Strait by Iran, will push up inflation and risk - aversion premiums. The continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the intensification of global trade frictions have increased the VIX panic index by 15% compared to 2023, leading to a shift of funds from risky assets to precious metals. Silver has a more prominent risk - aversion elasticity [9][10]. - The global "de - dollarization" process is accelerating. Central banks' silver - buying trend continues, with a 1230 - ton purchase in 2024 (18% year - on - year increase). The US stable - coin bill exposes the internal contradictions of the US monetary system, and emerging markets are diversifying their foreign - exchange reserves by increasing precious - metal holdings, including silver [12]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern - Supply growth is weak. Global silver production decreased by 2% in 2024. The supply is constrained by factors such as the scarcity of silver mines and recycling bottlenecks. In 2025, the global silver supply gap is expected to reach 117.6 million ounces (about 3659 tons), marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage [3][15]. - Demand is expanding. The recovery of the global semiconductor industry and the acceleration of 5G base - station construction have increased the demand for industrial silver. The demand for silver coins and bars is expected to grow by more than 7% in 2025 [17]. 3. Financial Attribute - The current gold - silver ratio is as high as 94, far exceeding the historical average range of 60 - 80. Historically, after the gold - silver ratio exceeded 80, it was usually repaired through the accelerated rise of silver. If the ratio returns to 80, based on the current COMEX gold price of $3400/ounce, the corresponding silver price would be $42.5/ounce, equivalent to over 10,000 yuan/kg in the domestic market [3][18][20]. - The historical performance of silver shows that in 2011, it once exceeded $35/ounce and then reached $49.5/ounce in less than two months. Recently, it has broken through $35/ounce again, indicating that a bull - market rally can be expected [22].