黑色产业数据每日监测-20250623

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - Steel futures prices maintain a narrow - range oscillation due to the contradiction between capital game and weak reality. The raw material side lacks a substantial driving force for a sharp rise, and the market lacks directional guidance. The market still shows off - season characteristics, with the inventory of building materials increasing within expectations, leading to a slight price rebound. However, considering the pressure of increased supply, it is expected that the market will return to an off - season oscillating and declining trend [1] Group 3: Market Overview - On June 23, black - series commodity futures generally stabilized with mixed performances. The rebar closed at 2,995 yuan/ton, up 0.03%; the hot - rolled coil closed at 3,112 yuan/ton, down 0.16%; the iron ore closed at 706 yuan/ton; among coking coal and coke, only coking coal closed up [1] Group 4: Market Analysis - Supply - Due to continuous concessions from the raw material side, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills has rebounded to 59.31% on a month - on - month basis. The driving force for production cuts is limited. The blast furnace operating rate last week increased by 0.41 percentage points to 83.82% compared with the previous week, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate increased to 90.79%. As a result, the daily average pig iron output ended a five - week decline, increasing by 0.57 tons to 242.18 tons on a month - on - month basis, 2.24 tons more than the same period last year. Electric arc furnace steel mills are facing long - term losses, with some reducing or halting production. As of June 18, the average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 70.93%, the lowest in three months, down 3.08% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate was 54.54%, down 2.19% week - on - week, and the daily average crude steel output decreased by 3.86% week - on - week. It is expected that the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnaces will continue to decline [1] Group 5: Market Analysis - Demand - With the stabilization of steel prices, the terminal demand has recovered slightly in the short term. However, due to high - temperature and rainy seasons, the terminal demand continues to weaken. A series of real - estate data is still bottoming out. The US tariff increase on imported household appliances may have an impact on China's indirect exports, and the manufacturing demand also faces significant downward pressure. Policy - wise, July is a major window period for domestic policy announcements, but currently, terminals mainly purchase on demand. The lag of macro - policy tools has led to a situation of strong expectations and weak reality in the futures market [1] Group 6: Investment Suggestion - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory levels, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to adopt an oscillating mindset in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to expect high - level consolidation in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the price stabilizes from the decline, or consider the strength - weakness relationship between coking coal and coke [1]