Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In the 25/26 season, it is expected that the apple production will slightly decline, the high - quality fruit rate will drop, and the spot purchase price will slightly increase due to inertia. The continuous positive basis provides a certain safety margin, and investors are advised to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. [2][40][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 H1 Apple Futures Price Trend Review - Apple prices first declined and then rose in H1 2025, with spot prices being stronger than futures prices. The spot price of 80 first - and second - grade striped red apples in Qixia market started at 6,800 yuan/ton in early November 2024, rose to 8,000 yuan/ton in late November, and reached 8,500 yuan/ton in April - May 2025 and has remained stable since then. The 24/25 contract price fluctuated between 4,500 - 8,500 yuan/ton, and the basis widened significantly near the delivery date. The 25/26 contract price fluctuated between 7,100 - 8,100 yuan/ton. [5] - From January to April 2025, old - crop apple prices were weak, while new - crop apple prices fluctuated upward. From May 2025 to the present, new - crop apple prices fluctuated downward, affected by the general decline in commodity prices and the revision of the apple production reduction expectation. [7] 3.2 2025 Apple Futures Semi - annual Outlook: Strengthening Market Expectations 3.2.1 Slight Decrease in Production and Decline in High - quality Fruit Rate - Production: The apple production in the 24/25 season increased by 5.09% year - on - year to 37.35 million tons. In the 25/26 season, due to the "heat, drought, wind" extreme weather in the core northwest production areas, the production is expected to slightly decrease. [8][40] - Quality: The high - quality fruit rate increased significantly in the 24/25 season. In Shaanxi, the proportion of apples above 80 reached 53.5%, and in Shandong, it was 72.2%. In the 25/26 season, affected by factors such as cold snaps, local hail, and continuous drought in mid - and early April, the high - quality fruit rate in Shaanxi is expected to decline. [14] 3.2.2 Decrease in Inventory and Price - Increase to Reduce Inventory after Spring Festival as Expected - Inventory: The national apple inventory in the 24/25 season decreased by 5.8% year - on - year to 8.4 million tons. The inventory peak in the 22/23 season was 8.78 million tons, 8.92 million tons in the 23/24 season, and 8.4 million tons in the 24/25 season. [16][40] - Spot Price: It is expected that the apple purchase price in the 25/26 season will slightly increase due to inertia. In October 2024, the purchase price of 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia, Shandong was 6.8 yuan/kg, and in November, it was 8.0 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 yuan/kg. The actual purchase price was stronger than expected. With the expected slight decline in production and high - quality fruit rate, the purchase price is expected to rise slightly. In H1 2025, most fruit prices were relatively strong, which supported the apple price. [28] 3.2.3 Mainly Positive Basis Delivery - Basis: The basis structure is generally in a positive basis state. Except for the AP2410 and AP2411 contracts in the 24/25 season, the rest of the contracts were delivered with a positive basis. The 25/26 contracts are currently in a positive basis state. Since the AP2411 contract, the new apple futures delivery standard has been implemented. [32] - Delivery Volume: The delivery volume has increased, but the overall base is still low. As of the end of May 2025, the average delivery volume of apple futures contracts was 262 lots. The average delivery volume in the 23/24 season was 357 lots, and in the 24/25 season, it was 469 lots. [35] - Trading Data: The trading volume and open interest are still at a relatively low level. In 2022, the cumulative trading volume of apple futures was 47.54 million lots; in 2023, it was 30.79 million lots, a year - on - year decrease of 35%; in 2024, it was 28.69 million lots, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative trading volume was 11.86 million lots, a year - on - year increase of 37%. At the end of May 2025, the open interest was 120,000 lots, a year - on - year decrease of 71,000 lots. [38] 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - Conclusion: Market expectations are strengthening. In the 24/25 season, the national apple production increased by 5.09% year - on - year, and the inventory decreased by 5.8% year - on - year. The spot price in the purchase period was stronger than expected, and the price increased to reduce inventory after the Spring Festival. Since the AP2412 contract, the active contract basis has generally maintained a positive basis. In the 25/26 season, it is expected that the production will slightly decline, the high - quality fruit rate will drop, and the spot purchase price will slightly increase due to inertia. The probability of an increase in delivery cost is high, and the continuous positive basis provides a certain safety margin. [40] - Investment Outlook: In terms of trading strategies, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips. With the expected slight decline in production and high - quality fruit rate in the 25/26 season, the spot purchase price is expected to rise slightly due to inertia. The positive basis provides a certain safety margin. [42]
2025年苹果期货半年度行情展望：市场预期转强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-23 13:26