2025年豆粕期货半年度行情展望：供扰需稳，下方有限

Report Overview - Report Title: "Supply Disturbance, Stable Demand, Limited Downside - 2025 Semi - annual Outlook for Soybean Meal Futures" [2][3] - Report Date: June 23, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wu Guangjing [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The price of soybean meal futures has limited downside space. The supply side has disturbance factors, including tightened global soybean supply - demand in the 2025/26 season, a tight balance sheet for US soybeans, and uncertain actual supply of soybean meal. The demand side is expected to increase steadily [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 H1 DCE Soybean Meal Futures Price Review - First Stage (Jan 10 - Apr 8): Prices rose due to a bullish USDA report in January, Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [7]. - Second Stage (Apr 9 - May 20): Prices fell as the market pre - traded the easing of Sino - US trade friction and the spot supply pressure from the concentrated arrival of soybeans in Q2 [8]. - Third Stage (May 21 - Jun 6): Prices rose with the easing of Sino - US trade friction, improved market sentiment, rising US soybean prices, and increased import costs [8]. 3.2 2025 H2 Main Influencing Factors for Soybean Meal Futures Prices 3.2.1 New - crop Soybean Supply - Demand Tightening: Declining Global Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio in 2025/26 - Global Soybeans: In the 2025/26 season, the supply increase is lower than the demand increase. The total supply is expected to be 7.3682 billion tons (up about 3.15% year - on - year), and the total demand is 6.1248 billion tons (up about 3.6% year - on - year). The inventory - to - consumption ratio is about 20.3%, down year - on - year and at a three - year low [12]. - US Soybeans: The 2025/26 balance sheet is tight. Production is expected to be 1.1812 billion tons (down about 0.6% year - on - year), and the total supply is 1.2819 billion tons (down about 0.5% year - on - year). Total demand is 1.2015 billion tons (up 840,000 tons year - on - year), and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is about 6.68%, at a three - year low. The low price in 2024 led to reduced production in 2025, and there is room for further production decline due to imperfect weather and potential yield cuts [14][15]. - South American Soybeans: In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's production is expected to increase slightly (up 6 million tons to 175 million tons, about 3.55% year - on - year), and Argentina's production is expected to decrease slightly (down 500,000 tons to 48.5 million tons, about 1% year - on - year). The marginal negative impact of South American supply pressure is decreasing [41]. 3.2.2 Soybean Meal Supply: Loose in Mid - year, Decreasing in Q4 - The actual supply of soybean meal is uncertain. Based on seasonal characteristics, it is estimated to be loose in mid - year and decrease in Q4. From the perspective of soybean import expectations, supply is expected to be loose from June to July. From the seasonal perspective of soybean imports, imports will decline from September to October and increase from November to December. There is uncertainty in Q4 imports due to Sino - US trade friction, and the state can release reserves to supplement supply if needed [53]. 3.2.3 Soybean Meal Demand: Steady Growth due to the Recovery of Pig Farming - In H2 2025, soybean meal demand is expected to grow steadily. Pig inventory is expected to increase in Q2 - Q3 2025, and feed production is also expected to increase year - on - year. The decline in the proportion of soybean meal in feed is limited because of the low forward prices of soybean meal futures [56]. 3.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The price of soybean meal futures in H2 2025 has limited downside. It is recommended to go long on DCE soybean meal futures on dips, and pay attention to weather conditions, important USDA reports, and trade agreements [60][61].