食品饮料行业周报：回归政策初心，白酒情绪边际改善-20250623

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [1][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights a marginal improvement in sentiment towards the liquor sector, suggesting that the most pessimistic phase for market sentiment may have passed, with limited impact from the current off-season for liquor consumption [5][6]. - The report notes a significant year-on-year increase in retail sales for tobacco and alcohol, with a 11.2% growth in May, attributed to the early release of consumption related to the Dragon Boat Festival [5][12]. - The report emphasizes the potential for policy changes to reverse macroeconomic expectations and enhance both valuation and performance in the food and beverage sector, which is currently undervalued [26]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the two weeks from June 9 to June 20, 2025, the food and beverage sector declined by 4.49%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.73 percentage points [3][18]. - Among sub-sectors, health products experienced the smallest decline at 2.15%, followed by meat products and dairy at 2.99% and 3.48% respectively [3][18]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends several key companies within the liquor sector, including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others [7][26]. - For the consumer goods sector, recommended companies include Bairun, Weidong, Yanjin, and Three Squirrels, among others [26][29]. Market Trends - The report notes that the "618" shopping festival saw a total e-commerce sales of 855.6 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, indicating strong consumer engagement [8][9]. - The report also highlights the performance of specific brands during the festival, with Kuaijishan achieving a 400% year-on-year increase in sales [9]. Valuation Metrics - As of June 20, 2025, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for the food and beverage sector stands at 20.33x, indicating a mid-range position among primary industries [22][26]. - The report provides detailed earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, suggesting a favorable investment outlook for several stocks [29].