银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250623

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Research Report - Egg Daily Report [2] - Date: June 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the futures market, the near - month 07 contract may maintain a weak performance due to the egg consumption entering the off - season after the rainy season in May, but the downward space is limited. For the far - month contracts, if the chicken culling volume increases in the future, the 8 and 9 - month contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise, but the increase may be limited if the supply is not significantly improved. One can consider building long positions in the 8 and 9 - month contracts when the safety margin is high [10]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - Egg prices: The average price in the main production areas is 2.87 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas is 3 yuan/jin, both remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable, and the egg prices continue to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [6]. - In - production laying hens: In May, the national in - production laying hens inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and 7.2% year - on - year. The estimated inventory from June to September 2025 is 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [7]. - Chicken culling: The egg - laying hen culling volume in the main production areas in the week of June 20 was 19.68 million, a decrease of 4% from the previous week. The average culling age on June 19 was 509 days, a decrease of 3 days from the previous week. The national culling chicken price rose, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.54 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan from the previous trading day [7][9]. - Egg sales: As of the week of June 19, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7,527 tons, a decrease of 8% from the previous week [8]. - Inventory: As of the week of June 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.11 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week [8]. - Profit: As of June 19, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous week. On June 20, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 2. Trading Logic - Near - month 07 contract: Due to the off - season demand after the rainy season, the price may be weak, but the downward space is limited. - Far - month contracts: If the chicken culling volume increases, the 8 and 9 - month contracts may rise, but the increase may be limited if the supply is not improved. One can consider building long positions in the 8 and 9 - month contracts when the safety margin is high [10]. 3. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 - month contracts when the rainy season is about to end in mid - to - late June and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [11]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including egg spot prices in the main production and sales areas, egg - laying hen chick prices, culling chicken prices, egg feed costs, in - production laying hen inventory, futures spreads, and profit trends [13][16][17] etc.