债市“抢跑”行情或将延续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "front - running" market in the bond market is expected to continue around the quarter - end, and the interest rate downward process is not over yet. However, it is necessary to be vigilant against the interest rate adjustment risk after the market reaches unanimous optimism, so it is recommended to hold high - liquidity varieties [4][20]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Viewpoint: The "Front - Running" Market in the Bond Market May Continue - Previously, the report continuously suggested bond - buying opportunities. The main logic was that institutional concerns about the capital market gradually subsided, and the market shifted from divergence to unanimous optimism. Last week, this process continued, manifested in the compression of spreads, including traditional term spreads and credit spreads, and the market started to seek returns from the convex points of the curve [4][7]. - The "front - running" market was triggered by the stable capital market during the tax period and quarter - end. It is expected to continue for some time due to factors such as the seasonal expansion of fixed - income asset management products in July, the potential spread of optimistic sentiment from banks and insurance to funds, the seasonal decline of capital interest rates after the quarter - end, and the potential positive feedback of interest rate decline [4][12]. - The "front - running" market can continue around the quarter - end, but one should be cautious about interest rate adjustment risks when the market becomes unanimously optimistic. It is recommended to hold high - liquidity varieties [4][20]. - Last week, the bond market continued to expect monetary policy easing. Despite some unmet expectations, the loose capital market and large banks' short - bond purchases supported the bond market, with short - end yields declining rapidly. On June 20, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by - 4.5bp, - 2.6bp, - 4.2bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.4bp respectively compared to the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fixed - Income Market Outlook: Intensive Release of Overseas Economic Data 3.2.1 This Week's Attention Points and Important Data Release - This week, the US will release data such as the May core PCE and the June University of Michigan consumer confidence index. Other important data and events include the eurozone's June manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Germany's June IFO business climate index, etc. [21][22]. 3.2.2 This Week's Estimated Supply Scale of Interest - Rate Bonds - This week, it is estimated that 846.6 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds will be issued, which is at a high level compared to the same period. Treasury bonds are expected to be issued with a total scale of about 110 billion yuan, including a 91 - day discount treasury bond and a 30 - year special treasury bond worth 71 billion yuan. Local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 585.7 billion yuan, and policy - bank bonds are expected to be issued with a scale of about 150 billion yuan [22]. 3.3 Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook: Yields Fluctuated Downward 3.3.1 Central Bank's Injection and Capital Market Situation - The central bank's reverse repurchase resulted in a net withdrawal. The reverse - repurchase injection scale reached 960.3 billion yuan, with a small net injection, but considering the MLF maturity, the open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 79.9 billion yuan. Capital interest rates were relatively stable. The trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase continued to rise, and the overnight proportion averaged around 89.7%. Capital interest rates showed differentiation. The secondary yields of medium - and long - term certificates of deposit continued to decline [28][29][34]. 3.3.2 The Capital Market Continued to Favor the Bond Market - The bond market continued to expect monetary policy easing. Although some expectations were not met, the loose capital market and large banks' short - bond purchases supported the bond market, with short - end yields declining rapidly. On June 20, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year treasury bonds decreased by - 4.5bp, - 2.6bp, - 4.2bp, - 1.3bp, and - 0.4bp respectively compared to the previous week, with the 1 - year treasury bond having the largest decline [46]. 3.4 High - Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Retail Data - On the production side, the operating rates were differentiated. The blast furnace operating rate and semi - steel tire operating rate increased, while the petroleum asphalt operating rate and PTA operating rate decreased. The year - on - year growth rate of the average daily crude steel output in early June remained negative [53]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales increased. The year - on - year growth rates of the 30 - large - city commercial housing sales area increased by about 5.9%. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 10.5% and 8% respectively [53]. - On the price side, crude oil prices rose, copper and aluminum prices increased, and coal prices were differentiated. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index decreased slightly, the cement index decreased, and the glass index increased. The output of rebar increased slightly, the inventory decreased slightly to 3.69 million tons, and the futures price increased by 1.1%. In the downstream consumer sector, vegetable, fruit, and pork prices changed by 1.2%, - 3.7%, and 0.3% respectively [54].