大类资产运行周报（20250616-20250620）：地缘局势依旧焦灼，权益资产价格承压-20250623

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged, the Middle - East geopolitical situation further escalated, the US dollar index rose weekly, stocks and bonds were weak, and commodities continued to rise. In general, commodities > bonds > stocks in terms of USD - denominated assets [3][6]. - In China, from June 16th to June 20th, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in May was lower than expected, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in May was higher than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment from January to May was 3.7%, lower than expected. The year - on - year decline of national real estate development investment from January to May was 10.7%. The stock market declined, and the bond market and commodities rose. Generally, commodities > bonds > stocks [3]. - The market will focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [3][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Large - scale Asset Overall Performance - Global Stock Market: From June 16th to June 20th, the Middle - East situation increased market risk - aversion, and most global stock markets declined. European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets were slightly more resilient than developed markets. The VIX index fluctuated weekly [8]. - Global Bond Market: From June 16th to June 20th, the Fed's June FOMC meeting maintained the target range of the federal funds rate at 4.25% - 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The divergence of Fed officials' monetary policy expectations increased. Medium - and long - term US bond yields declined, and the 10 - year US bond yield fell 3BP to 4.38% weekly. The bond market fluctuated weekly. Globally, high - yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [13]. - Global Foreign Exchange Market: From June 16th to June 20th, the US macro data was generally stable, market risk - aversion increased, and the US dollar index rose weekly. Most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate fluctuated narrowly. The US dollar index rose 0.63% weekly [14]. - Global Commodity Market: The escalation of the geopolitical situation supported the high - level operation of international oil prices. Precious metal prices declined, and the prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals showed mixed trends [16]. 3.2 Domestic Large - scale Asset Performance - Domestic Stock Market: From June 16th to June 20th, the geopolitical situation continued to affect equity assets, and most major broad - based A - share indexes declined. The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased compared with the previous week. In terms of style, large - cap blue - chips were relatively more resilient. Among sectors, banks had the highest gains, while pharmaceuticals and textile and apparel underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51% weekly [18]. - Domestic Bond Market: From June 16th to June 20th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 799 billion yuan. The capital market remained stable overall. The bond market fluctuated strongly weekly. Generally, government bonds > credit bonds > corporate bonds [21]. - Domestic Commodity Market: The domestic commodity market rose overall. Among major commodity sectors, energy had the highest gains, while precious metals underperformed [22]. 3.3 Large - scale Asset Price Outlook - The market will continue to focus on the Middle - East situation in the short term. The price fluctuations of related large - scale assets, especially energy prices, may increase. It is necessary to closely monitor the situation [23].