“保险行业101”基础研究系列报告之一：如何理解人身险公司的负债成本？

Investment Rating - The report rates the insurance industry as "Overweight" indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [2][5][16]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the cost of liabilities is a critical factor affecting the valuation of life insurance companies, particularly in the context of "spread loss" concerns [3][4]. - It highlights that the focus has shifted from traditional growth indicators like NBV (New Business Value) to the management of liability costs and long-term investment returns as the primary valuation drivers [3]. - The report introduces the concept of "break-even yield" for assessing the cost of liabilities, suggesting that NBV and VIF (Value of In-Force) break-even yields are useful metrics [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The insurance sector has seen increased attention due to the new public fund regulations, with a noted underweighting of the non-bank sector compared to the CSI 300 index [2]. Liability Cost Analysis - The report identifies three main sources of profit for life insurance companies: mortality difference, expense difference, and investment yield difference [3]. - It discusses the downward trend in interest rates and its impact on the persistent low PEV (Price to Embedded Value) ratios, attributing this to concerns over spread loss risks [3]. Performance Metrics - The report provides specific break-even yield figures for major listed insurance companies for 2024, indicating a significant reduction in new liability costs [4]. - For instance, China Life's NBV break-even yield is reported at 2.43%, while Ping An's is at 2.42%, showing year-on-year changes [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including New China Life, China Life (H), China Pacific Insurance (H), Ping An, ZhongAn Online, and AIA [5].