Soochow Securities·2025-06-23 14:24Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Views - The new housing transaction area has decreased year-on-year, while many regions continue to relax policies to stimulate the market [1] - The report highlights a significant shift in the real estate market dynamics, indicating a potential turning point in policy effectiveness and market stabilization [8] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The real estate sector saw a decline of 1.9% last week, while the CSI 300 and Wind A indices decreased by 0.5% and 1.1%, respectively, resulting in excess returns of -1.5% and -0.9% [55] 2. Real Estate Market Conditions - New housing market: In the last week, 36 cities recorded a new housing transaction area of 205.9 million square meters, up 10.0% month-on-month but down 18.5% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from June 1 to June 20, 2025, transactions totaled 527.4 million square meters, down 11.0% year-on-year [13][17] - Second-hand housing market: In 15 cities, the transaction area was 169.5 million square meters, up 1.6% month-on-month and up 1.4% year-on-year. Cumulatively, from June 1 to June 20, 2025, transactions reached 456 million square meters, up 7.0% year-on-year [17] - Inventory and absorption: The cumulative inventory of new homes in 13 cities was 7816.2 million square meters, up 0.3% month-on-month and down 11.6% year-on-year. The absorption cycle for new homes was 20.5 months, with a month-on-month increase of 0.8 months and a year-on-year decrease of 3.2 months [29] 3. Land Market Conditions - From June 16 to June 22, 2025, the land transaction area in 100 cities was 1571.3 million square meters, down 24.1% month-on-month and down 31.8% year-on-year. The average land price was 1732 RMB per square meter, up 32.0% month-on-month and up 30.0% year-on-year [47] - The cumulative land transaction area for 2025 was 49461.5 million square meters, down 5.2% year-on-year [47] 4. Investment Recommendations - Real estate development: Recommended companies include China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a suggestion to pay attention to Greentown China [8] - Property management: Recommended companies include China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, Poly Property, and Yuexiu Service [8] - Real estate brokerage: Recommended company is Beike, with a suggestion to pay attention to I Love My Home [9]