谁在抢跑债市？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Non - bank institutions are the main drivers pushing down interest rates in the recent bond market. The reasons include central bank's liquidity support, the need for non - bank institutions to increase returns, and seasonal factors of funds [2][12]. - For interest - rate bonds, there is a short - term winning chance, but it's hard to break through the previous low, and there may be redemption pressure after the quarter - end. For credit bonds, the possibility of short - term adjustment is low, and medium - long - term varieties of 3 - 5Y can be appropriately concerned [3][25]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Who is Front - running the Bond Market? 3.1.1 Which Institutions are Front - running? - Non - bank institutions are the main drivers of the recent interest rate decline. Funds have increased net purchases of 7 - 10Y and 20 - 30Y interest - rate bonds, while wealth management and insurance have increased allocation of credit bonds. Among banks, only large banks maintain high demand for short - term bonds, and rural financial institutions sell long - term and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [12]. - The reasons for non - bank institutions' front - running are: central bank's liquidity support, the need for non - bank institutions to increase returns as pure - bond funds have average performance this year, and seasonal factors of funds' scale - boosting at the end of the quarter [2][17][20]. 3.1.2 What Opportunities are Worth Paying Attention to Currently? - Interest - rate bonds: There is short - term winning chance, but it's difficult to break through the previous low, and there may be redemption pressure after the quarter - end, so opportunities for high - level layout can be concerned. - Credit bonds: The possibility of short - term adjustment is low, especially for 3 - 5Y medium - long - term varieties, but positions should be controlled [25]. 3.2 Institution Bond Custody Volume No specific content provided in the text for analysis. 3.3 Institution Fund Tracking 3.3.1 Fund Price - This week (June 16 - 20, 2025), liquidity remained basically unchanged. R007 closed at 1.59%, up 1BP from last week; DR007 closed at 1.49%, down 1BP from last week; the 6 - month national - stock transfer discount rate closed at 1.10%, up 1BP from last week [4][34]. 3.3.2 Financing Situation - This week, the balance of pledged reverse repurchase in the inter - bank market was 126419.2 billion yuan, up 5.4% from last week. Fund companies and bank wealth management had net financing of 508.7 billion yuan and 785.9 billion yuan respectively [37]. 3.4 Institution Behavior Quantitative Tracking 3.4.1 Assessing Fund Duration - This week, the duration measurement values of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and general interest - rate bond funds in the market were 6.79 and 5.18 respectively, with an increase of 0.03 and a decrease of 0.07 compared to last week [46]. 3.4.2 "Asset Scarcity" Index No specific analysis content provided in the text. 3.4.3 Institution Behavior Trading Signals No specific analysis content provided in the text. 3.4.4 Institution Leverage - This week, the overall market leverage ratio was 108.0%, up 0.4 percentage points from last week. Among them, the leverage ratio of insurance institutions was 114.0%, down 0.8 percentage points; the fund leverage ratio was 105.2%, up 0.9 percentage points; the securities firm leverage ratio was 213.8%, down 0.1 percentage points [63]. 3.4.5 Bank Self - operation Comparison Table - The table shows the nominal yield, tax cost, value - added tax, income tax, after - tax income, capital occupation cost, risk weight, capital adequacy ratio, capital profit margin, and after - tax and risk - capital - considered income of different investment products such as general loans, 10Y treasury bonds, etc. [68]. 3.5 Asset Management Product Data Tracking 3.5.1 Funds No specific analysis content provided in the text. 3.5.2 Bank Wealth Management - This week, the overall market wealth management product break - even rate remained basically unchanged from last week, with the overall product break - even rate at 1.8% [71]. 3.6 Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking No specific analysis content provided in the text. 3.7 General Asset Management Pattern No specific analysis content provided in the text.