Changjiang Securities·2025-06-23 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [7] Core Insights - The oil shipping rates have risen as expected, with the average VLCC-TCE increasing by 65.5% to $53,000 per day, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [3][44] - The logistics sector, particularly SF Express, has seen a significant increase in parcel volume, with a year-on-year growth of 31.8% [4][55] - The overall shipping market is experiencing a mixed performance, with oil shipping rates increasing while container shipping rates on the US route have declined by 10.5% [3][44] Summary by Sections Travel Chain - The domestic passenger volume has shown a stable increase of 1% year-on-year, while international passenger volume has surged by 18% [3][14] - The domestic passenger load factor has increased by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the international load factor has risen by 2.2 percentage points [23] Shipping - Oil shipping rates have increased due to geopolitical conflicts, while the SCFI index for container shipping has decreased by 10.5% to 1,870 points [3][44] - The PDCI index for domestic container shipping has slightly increased by 0.1% to 1,125, indicating a stable market despite seasonal fluctuations [3][44] Logistics - The total express delivery volume reached 3.93 billion parcels, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.5% [4][55] - The price of bulk commodity road transport has increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with the current price at 0.336 yuan per ton [4][55] - SF Express continues to lead in growth, driven by operational enhancements and expansion into new markets [4][55]