国海证券晨会纪要-20250624

Group 1: Express Delivery Industry - In May 2025, the express delivery industry experienced a year-on-year business volume growth of 17.2%, outpacing the growth of physical online retail sales at 8.2% and social consumer goods retail sales at 6.4% [3][4] - The average revenue per ticket in May 2025 was 7.25 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.62% and a month-on-month decline of 2.46%, indicating ongoing price competition in the industry [3][4] - Major companies like SF Express and YTO Express reported business volume growth rates of 31.76% and 21.02% respectively, while their average revenue per ticket saw declines of 13.97% and 4.93% respectively, highlighting the impact of price competition [4][5] Group 2: Aluminum Industry - The domestic aluminum industry is currently experiencing a favorable macroeconomic environment, with a stable supply of electrolytic aluminum and a decrease in costs, leading to improved profit margins for producers [6][7] - As of June 19, 2025, the average cost of electrolytic aluminum was approximately 17,030 yuan per ton, down 169 yuan from the previous week, while inventory levels remained low, supporting aluminum prices [7][12] - The demand for aluminum is facing challenges due to seasonal slowdowns in various downstream sectors, particularly in photovoltaic and home appliance industries, which are experiencing reduced operating rates [7][8] Group 3: Coal Industry - The coal market is showing signs of recovery as the demand for thermal coal increases, with port coal prices stabilizing at 609 yuan per ton as of June 20, 2025, and pithead prices beginning to rise [13][14] - The production capacity utilization rate in major coal-producing regions has increased slightly, indicating a stable supply despite some production cuts due to safety inspections [13] - The overall demand for coal is expected to improve as electricity consumption rises with the onset of summer heat, while coal inventories at power plants remain low compared to the previous year [13] Group 4: REITs Market - The first batch of data center REITs has been approved, marking a significant milestone in the domestic REITs market, which previously lacked offerings in this sector [17][18] - The total market capitalization of REITs reached 206.56 billion yuan, with a daily turnover rate of 0.60%, indicating a slight decrease in market activity [18][19] - The performance of property-type REITs has been strong, particularly in the affordable rental housing sector, which has seen significant gains [18][19] Group 5: Automotive Industry - The automotive sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a decline of 2.6% in the automotive index during the week of June 16-20, 2025 [22][23] - The "old-for-new" subsidy policy will continue to support automotive consumption, with significant investments in charging infrastructure by major automakers [23][25] - The launch of the Li Auto i6, a new electric SUV, is set for September 2025, reflecting ongoing innovation and product development in the sector [24][28] Group 6: Liquor Industry - The liquor sector has seen a decline of 4.27% over the past two weeks, but there are signs of emotional recovery as regulatory pressures ease [34][35] - Recent data indicates a significant improvement in retail sales growth for tobacco and alcohol, suggesting a potential rebound in consumer sentiment [36] - Major companies like Wuliangye are implementing reforms to enhance their market position, indicating a proactive approach to industry challenges [37][38]