综合晨报：以色列和伊朗达成暂时停火协议，油价大跌-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has led to a significant drop in oil prices and a weakening of the US dollar index, while increasing market risk appetite [2][6]. - Gold prices are under pressure due to the cease - fire and the potential for a July interest rate cut [3][17][18]. - Different commodity markets show various trends. For example, the agricultural product market has inventory changes, the black metal market has weak demand, and the energy - chemical market is affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [4][32][56]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce called for optimizing rebate policies and shortening the rebate settlement cycle [13]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng attended a political consultative meeting and emphasized economic reform tasks [14]. - The Deputy Minister of Finance met with the China - US Chamber of Commerce delegation to discuss Sino - US economic and trade relations [15]. - Investment advice: Balance asset allocation [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Bowman supports a July interest rate cut if inflation is under control [17]. - Trump announced a phased full - scale cease - fire between Israel and Iran [17]. - Gold prices are weakening, with a risk of decline due to reduced geopolitical tensions and the potential for a rate cut [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru aims to win a majority in the Senate election and ensure energy supply [20]. - A Fed official supports a July interest rate cut [20]. - Trump announced a temporary cease - fire between Israel and Iran, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index [21]. - Investment advice: Expect the US dollar index to decline in the short term [21]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The preliminary US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the manufacturing PMI was 52 [22]. - Iran's attack on a US military base was less than expected [23]. - Fed Vice - Chair Bowman hinted at a possible July interest rate cut [24]. - Investment advice: Expect US stocks to oscillate weakly [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 2205 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [25]. - Yield is approaching the previous low, and institutions with floating profits may take profit. The bond market is expected to oscillate weakly at the beginning of the week and strengthen later [25]. - Investment advice: Long - position holders can continue to hold, and consider buying on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil exported 903 million tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of June, with a lower daily average export volume than last year [27]. - The good - quality rate of US soybeans remained the same as the previous week [28]. - Domestic oil mills' soybean meal inventory continued to rise [29]. - Investment advice: The market lacks a basis for a sharp rise, with short - term prices oscillating. Focus on US soybean weather and Sino - US relations [29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2.5% from June 1 - 20 [30]. - Palm oil and soybean oil inventories in China increased [30][31]. - The bullish sentiment in the vegetable oil market has weakened, and the increase in palm oil production may lead to inventory accumulation [31]. - Investment advice: Consider buying put options, and beware of the impact of geopolitical factors on the vegetable oil market [31]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Port steam coal inventories are increasing, and the market has weak demand [32]. - Coal prices have slightly rebounded, and the demand for power plants has seasonally recovered [33]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to weather and port transaction conditions [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - From January to May, power grid project investment reached 204 billion yuan [33]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating, with weak demand in the off - season and limited price rebound [33]. - Investment advice: Expect iron ore prices to remain weak [34]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The by - product market of corn starch has a complex situation, with some prices stable and others showing signs of decline [35]. - Investment advice: Observe the market, as the CS - C spread is complex [35]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn prices in Northeast China have risen [36]. - Investment advice: Observe old - crop contracts, and consider shorting new - crop contracts at high prices [36]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia cancelled anti - dumping duties on steel from South Korea and Vietnam [36]. - Five major construction central enterprises' new contract value in the first five months exceeded 2.9 trillion yuan [37]. - Steel prices are oscillating, with weak demand in the off - season and uncertain future trends [37]. - Investment advice: Short - term steel prices will oscillate, and consider hedging on price rebounds [38]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Silicon wafer prices are falling, and the polysilicon market has weak demand [39][40]. - Investment advice: Consider short - term shorting and long - term going long, and pay attention to the 08 - 09 positive spread opportunity [41]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The number of operating 97 - high - silicon factories has decreased [42]. - Industrial silicon production is increasing, with weak demand and expected price oscillations at a low level [42]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting on price rebounds and pay attention to supply - side changes [43]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME0 - 3 lead is at a discount, and lead ingot inventory has decreased [44][45]. - Lead supply may decrease marginally, and demand is in the off - season [45]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider buying on dips [46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a discount, and zinc ingot inventory has decreased [47]. - Zinc prices are oscillating, with an expected oversupply in the fundamentals [47]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting at high prices, and pay attention to spread trading opportunities [48]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - An Indonesian nickel - iron plant may be acquired [49][50]. - Nickel prices are under pressure due to weak demand and expected oversupply [51]. - Investment advice: Observe in the short term and consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [51]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Zhuhai Guanyu received a nomination notice from Dongfeng Nissan [52]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are under pressure, and new positions are increasing [52]. - Investment advice: Do not chase short positions, consider partial profit - taking for old short positions, and pay attention to the 9 - 11 positive spread opportunity [53]. 3.2.14 Energy - Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The FOB price of Middle - East frozen LPG has increased [55]. - The market's risk premium for LPG is expected to decline [56]. - Investment advice: Expect the LPG futures price to decline [57]. 3.2.15 Energy - Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Iran agreed to a cease - fire, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices [58]. - Investment advice: Oil prices will give back the risk premium [59]. 3.2.16 Energy - Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is weakening, with general sales [60]. - Supply is stable, and demand is weak [61][62]. - Investment advice: The downside space of the caustic soda futures is limited [63]. 3.2.17 Energy - Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp has partially stopped falling and rebounded [64]. - Investment advice: The price increase of pulp futures is expected to be limited [64]. 3.2.18 Energy - Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price is fluctuating slightly [65]. - Investment advice: The impact of the Middle - East geopolitical issue on PVC prices is expected to be limited [65]. 3.2.19 Energy - Chemicals (PX) - PX prices have slightly increased, and the de - stocking pattern continues [66][67]. - Investment advice: Expect PX prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [68]. 3.2.20 Energy - Chemicals (PTA) - PTA spot prices have decreased, and the basis has weakened [69]. - PTA supply and demand are generally balanced, with a slightly positive outlook [70]. - Investment advice: Expect PTA prices to oscillate strongly in the short term [71]. 3.2.21 Energy - Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventories have decreased [72]. - Asphalt prices are affected by oil prices and demand, with an upward risk [72]. - Investment advice: Expect asphalt prices to oscillate upward [73]. 3.2.22 Energy - Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash market is in a weak oscillation [74]. - Investment advice: Consider shorting soda ash at high prices in the medium term [74]. 3.2.23 Energy - Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market have slightly adjusted [75]. - With the arrival of the off - season, glass demand will decline, and prices may fall [76]. - Investment advice: The spot price of float glass may decline, and the futures price may be affected by market sentiment [76]. 3.2.24 Energy - Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory quotes are mostly stable, with some transactions [77][79]. - Bottle chip production is expected to decrease in July, alleviating supply pressure [79]. - Investment advice: Consider expanding the processing margin of bottle chips on dips and beware of raw material price fluctuations [79]. 3.2.25 Energy - Chemicals (Styrene) - Pure benzene port inventory has increased [80]. - Styrene supply is recovering, and demand is relatively stable [82]. - Investment advice: Styrene's own driving force is limited, and pay attention to the supply and demand of pure benzene and oil price fluctuations [82]. 3.2.26 Energy - Chemicals (Urea) - The agricultural sector is deploying soybean and oilseed production work [83]. - Urea prices in the domestic market are weakening, with different supply situations in different regions [84]. - Investment advice: The urea futures market may change from a rebound to a weak consolidation, affected by geopolitical and export policies [85].