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家居行业点评:中央资金支持国补延续全年,有望持续支撑家居需求
Changjiang Securities·2025-06-24 01:10

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the continuation of central government subsidies is expected to support home furnishing demand throughout the year, with the home furnishing industry entering a phase of stabilization [2][6] - The consumption policy of replacing old products with new ones remains unchanged, and the progress of subsidy fund usage is in line with expectations, accounting for about half of the annual total [2][12] - The home furnishing market is currently in a bottoming phase, with the potential for demand to be supported by the stabilization and possible recovery of the real estate market [2][12] Summary by Sections Policy and Funding - The government has introduced several policies to support the home furnishing sector, including a significant increase in special government bonds for consumer goods replacement, with a total of 300 billion yuan allocated for 2025, double that of 2024 [12] - As of May 31, 2025, the number of home furnishing replacements reached approximately 57.63 million, nearing the total for the entire previous year [12][13] Market Conditions - The home furnishing industry is experiencing a weak stabilization phase, with expectations of continued support from government subsidies and a potential recovery in the real estate sector [2][12] - The report highlights that 60%-70% of current home furnishing demand is driven by new home deliveries, indicating a strong correlation with the real estate market [12] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high dividend certainty and competitive long-term prospects, such as Mousse, Oppein, and Sophia, which have a high proportion of domestic retail sales [12] - Companies like Gujia Home and Minhua Holdings are noted for their strong domestic sales capabilities, while Zhijia Home and Jiangshan Oppein are expected to perform better once real estate policies show more substantial effects [12]