宝城期货国债期货早报-20250624

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content in the provided report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and overall view of TL2509 is "oscillation", with an intraday view of "oscillation on the strong side". The core logic is that macroeconomic indicators are weak and the expectation of monetary easing is rising [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, and TS varieties, the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the overall reference view is "oscillation". The market has a strong expectation of medium - to - long - term interest rate cuts due to weakening macroeconomic indicators and the Fed's expected rate cuts. However, the short - term expectation of further rate cuts is weak, so the short - term is expected to maintain an oscillating consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the weak macroeconomic indicators and the increasing expectation of monetary easing [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "oscillation on the strong side", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation". Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range. There is a strong expectation of medium - to - long - term interest rate cuts because of weakening macroeconomic indicators and the Fed's expected rate cuts. But the short - term expectation of further rate cuts is weak as the effect of the May rate cut needs to be tested and the second - half macro - policies await the guidance of the July Politburo meeting. So, the short - term is expected to be in oscillating consolidation [5].