Risk-off阶段开启，risk-on后转向成长

Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The recent escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran has raised global geopolitical risks, with significant military actions observed since June 13, 2025[2][18] - If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it could trigger a broader regional conflict involving multiple countries, leading to increased market volatility[2][18] Group 2: US-China Relations - Despite a temporary easing of tariffs, uncertainties remain in US-China relations, particularly in technology and national security sectors, which could lead to further tariff increases[1][13] - The fluctuating tariff policies under Trump's administration create a perception of instability, impacting market confidence[1][13] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The transition from a risk-on to a risk-off phase is evident, with global equity assets showing signs of weakness since the tariff reversals began on April 7, 2025[3][19] - Market sentiment is shifting towards defensive assets like gold and the US dollar, while oil prices may rise due to geopolitical tensions[3][19] Group 4: Domestic Economic Indicators - Domestic consumption growth remains stable in Q2 2025, supported by holiday effects and fiscal data, but export growth faces a potential 10% tariff increase[4][23] - The overall economic outlook is characterized as "weakly stable," with market movements increasingly influenced by international events and capital flows[4][23] Group 5: Capital Flows and Market Behavior - Margin trading balances have stabilized around 1.8 trillion yuan, with institutional positions decreasing from 73.6% to 69.9%, indicating insufficient incremental capital[5][24] - Market trading behavior shows a trend towards structural rotation, with a notable shift from small-cap to large-cap stocks as market dynamics evolve[5][24]