Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-06-24 01:33Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View The V2509 contract of PVC showed a volatile trend. The supply side saw a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate, and the demand side also had a decrease in downstream开工率. The inventory showed a de - stocking trend but at a slower pace with relatively low inventory pressure. The domestic PVC industry is in a peak maintenance period, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. The domestic downstream is in the off - season. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and anti - dumping policies may be implemented in early July. In terms of cost, some calcium carbide maintenance devices have resumed, but the supply in the northwest region is restricted by production cuts, and the raw material price of the ethylene method is supported by strong oil prices. Considering the digestion of geopolitical factors in the Middle East, the short - term V2509 is expected to fluctuate, with the daily K - line focusing on the support around 4850 and the pressure around 4950 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4896 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the trading volume was 992,189 lots, down 63,888 lots; the open interest was 969,157 lots, up 16,127 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures were 753,218 lots, down 1,866 lots; the short positions were 783,171 lots, up 21,589 lots; the net long positions were - 29,953 lots, down 23,455 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5025 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4824.62 yuan/ton, up 28.46 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4982.5 yuan/ton, up 22.5 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4882.5 yuan/ton, up 26.25 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 740 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 86 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2698.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 2480 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was 50.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of VCM CFR Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of VCM CFR Southeast Asia was 564 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mid - price of EDC CFR Far East was 176 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mid - price of EDC CFR Southeast Asia was 178 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The overall PVC开工率 was 78.62%, down 0.63 percentage points; the calcium carbide - based PVC开工率 was 80.43%, down 1.34 percentage points; the ethylene - based PVC开工率 was 73.81%, up 1.22 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 35.51 million tons, up 0.03 million tons. The social inventory in the East China region was 31.23 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; in the South China region, it was 4.28 million tons, up 0.02 million tons. The national real estate prosperity index was 93.72, down 0.14; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.2501954 billion square meters, up 47.0449 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 1915.481 billion yuan, up 428.168 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 15.01%, up 0.95 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 16.93%, up 0.38 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.51%, up 0.92 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.51%, up 0.93 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 23, the spot exchange price of PVCSG5 in Changzhou decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton compared with last Friday, with the price ranging from 4780 to 4860 yuan/ton. From June 6 to 12, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 79.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47%. As of June 19, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 0.74% month - on - month to 569,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.97% [3].