瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2509 is expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with the range estimated around 2220 - 2320. Supply pressure is high in the medium - to - long - term, and there is still room for the caustic soda spot price to decline, while the futures price is undervalued below 2200 but lacks positive drivers for a rebound [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2272 yuan/ton. The futures open interest is 293,284 lots, a decrease of 4,497 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 15,116 lots, a decrease of 23,262 lots. The futures trading volume is 508,464 lots, a decrease of 145,252 lots. The closing price of the January contract is 2266 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2329 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 930 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2438 yuan/ton, a decrease of 93 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda is 166 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal is 635 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,080 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of alumina is 3140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. From June 13th to 19th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. As of June 19th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 366,500 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 9.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63% [1]. 3.6 Market Analysis - The SH2509 contract rose 0.31% to close at 2272 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 0.3% to 81.2% last week, with little change from the previous period. On the demand side, alumina is still in the resumption stage; for non - aluminum sectors, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber increased by 0.24% week - on - week to 80.80%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased by 0.64% week - on - week to 60.73%. In terms of inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.63% week - on - week to 365,600 tons, at a moderately high level during the same period. This week, Dongying Huatai's 750,000 - ton device is under maintenance, and some devices are planned to restart, so the capacity utilization rate may decline. There are many caustic soda production devices to be put into operation from June to July, resulting in high medium - to - long - term supply pressure. The delivery volume of the main contract remains high; the non - aluminum off - season has weak rigid demand and resistance to high prices. In terms of cost, the downstream demand for steam coal has improved recently, but the price increase lacks a sustainable driving force, and the power cost support of self - supplied power plants is limited. The profit of chlor - alkali is acceptable, and there is still room for the caustic soda spot price to decline; the futures price is at a discount, and the valuation is low below 2200, but there is a lack of positive drivers for a rebound [1].