国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250624

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs, and predicts that they will all experience wide - range fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Market Trend: Expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Fundamentals: The futures closed at 706.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.43%. The positions increased by 4,370 hands. Among spot prices, the price of most ores decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed to varying degrees [4]. - News: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Trend: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - Fundamentals: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03%. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.16%. In terms of inventory and demand, there were corresponding changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][8][9]. - News: In May 2025, national steel production data showed a decline in crude steel and pig iron production year - on - year, and an increase in steel production. On June 19, steel production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand changed [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Trend: Ferrosilicon is affected by sector sentiment resonance and silicomanganese has a firm ore - end quotation, both with wide - range fluctuations [2][10]. - Fundamentals: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [10]. - News: On June 23, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed, and a steel mill in Shandong finalized the ferrosilicon purchase price [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - Market Trend: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Four rounds of coke price cuts have been implemented [2][13]. - Fundamentals: The closing prices of coke and coking coal futures changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads. The positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts also changed [13][15]. - News: On June 23, the prices of coking coal in some regions changed, and the positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed that the long positions of coking coal increased and the short positions decreased, while for coke, both long and short positions decreased [13][14][15]. Thermal Coal - Market Trend: Demand remains to be released, with wide - range fluctuations [2][17]. - Fundamentals: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan. There were corresponding prices for domestic and foreign trade thermal coal, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE did not change [18][19]. Logs - Market Trend: The basis is being repaired, with wide - range fluctuations [2][21]. - Fundamentals: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed, and the prices of various types of logs in the spot market were mostly stable [21]. - News: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [23].