合成橡胶：伊以冲突缓解，偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is -1, indicating a weak - bearish outlook. The industry is expected to run weakly under the current situation [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - With the easing of the Iran - Israel conflict, international oil prices have fallen sharply. Against this backdrop, synthetic rubber is expected to run weakly due to significant fundamental pressure. Although the market is worried about the increase in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber, it is difficult to get buying support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - For the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (07 contract), the daily closing price decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 11,575 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 3,792 lots to 102,647 lots, the open interest decreased by 2,322 lots to 10,874 lots, and the turnover decreased by 29,303 ten - thousand yuan to 594,738 ten - thousand yuan [1]. 3.1.2 Spread Data - The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract increased by 55 to 225; the monthly spread of BR06 - BR07 increased by 55 to - 11,575. The prices of North China, East China, and South China's private cis - butadiene rubber were 11,670 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), 11,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 11,750 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,800 yuan/ton [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (type 1502) and (type 1712) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,200 yuan/ton and 11,000 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,550 yuan/ton and by 25 yuan/ton to 9,575 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.1.4 Fundamental Indicators - The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 1.05 percentage points to 68.8633%. The theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,388 yuan/ton, and the profit remained unchanged at - 388 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - The latest inventory of butadiene at East China ports is about 28,400 tons, an increase of 7,400 tons compared with the previous period. Importers expect a slight month - on - month increase in imports in June, and attention should be paid to the flow of goods [2]. - As of June 18, 2025 (week 25), the inventory of China's high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 33,700 tons, a decrease of 200 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.56%) compared with the previous period. Due to the impact of the rising crude oil prices caused by geopolitical factors in the Middle East, the market's concern about the increase in production costs driving up the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has gradually increased. The overall inventory of sample producers has decreased, while the overall inventory of sample traders has increased [2][3].