LLDPE：短期偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The LLDPE industry is rated as "Weakly Bearish" with a trend strength of -1 [3][4] Core View of the Report - LLDPE is expected to run weakly in the short term due to factors such as the collapse of plastic costs from falling crude oil prices, high supply pressure, and weak demand [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures was 7444, down 0.03% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 421,810 and a decrease of 7189 in open interest [1] - The 09 - contract basis was -54, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was 75, compared to -15 and 68 the previous day respectively [1] - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7390 yuan/ton, 7500 yuan/ton, and 7550 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of -10 yuan/ton, +50 yuan/ton, and no change from the previous day [1] Spot News - LLDPE market prices remained firm at high levels, with price fluctuations ranging from 10 - 50 yuan/ton. Linear futures oscillated weakly, but most petrochemical companies kept prices stable, and some prices in CNPC Northwest and CNPC East China Shandong warehouses were raised, supporting the market atmosphere. However, downstream factories showed strong wait - and - see sentiment and low purchasing enthusiasm [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macroscopically, Iran's acceptance of the US cease - fire plan led to a sharp drop in crude oil prices, causing the collapse of plastic costs and the expected reversal of the premium from import risks. Also, high - price transactions in the polyethylene spot market weakened significantly, and the basis continued to decline, resulting in a negative feedback in the industry chain [2] - In terms of supply and demand, for the 2025 09 contract, the new domestic PE plant capacity is expected to be 2.05 million tons, with high supply pressure. Although there were many maintenance operations in June, it was not enough to change the high - output pattern. The demand side is in the traditional off - season for the shed film industry, with weak market demand and low orders. The demand for packaging films is average, and the operating rate decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous period. Downstream factories have insufficient continuous restocking power [2] - Attention should be paid to the price difference changes between low - density and linear polyethylene, as well as between LDPE and EVA products. If full - density plants continue to switch production to HDPE, the supply pressure of LLDPE may be alleviated [2]