尿素：地缘冲突缓解，偏弱运行

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend intensity of urea is -1, indicating a weak outlook. The rating suggests that the industry is expected to perform weakly, with a price trend that is likely to decline [1][3]. 2) Core View of the Report - Urea prices are expected to run weakly. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, international oil prices have fallen significantly, and urea is expected to operate weakly under pressure from the fundamentals. In the medium - term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions. In the long - term, with an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, the pressure on urea remains high, and the price center may gradually shift downwards [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of urea's main contract was 1,711 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,714 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan. Trading volume decreased by 135,987 lots to 269,723 lots, while the open interest of the 09 contract increased by 7,750 lots to 233,160 lots. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 3,581 tons to 0 tons, and the turnover decreased by 491.696 million yuan to 924.872 million yuan. The basis and monthly spread also showed different degrees of decline [1]. - Spot Market: The factory prices of some urea producers remained stable, while others decreased. For example, the price of Shanxi Fengxi decreased by 60 yuan to 1,640 yuan/ton, and the price of Hebei Dongguang decreased by 20 yuan to 1,790 yuan/ton. The prices of traders in Shandong and Shanxi regions decreased by 70 yuan and 40 yuan respectively. The industry's operating rate was 86.95%, down 0.48 percentage points, and the daily output was 201,310 tons, down 1,100 tons [1]. b. Industry News - Market Transaction and Inventory Situation: At the beginning of last week, the speculative nature of the export sector was relatively strong, driving an improvement in domestic transactions. However, after a round of concentrated export purchases from Thursday to the weekend, transactions weakened significantly. As of June 18, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 113.60 million tons, a decrease of 4.11 million tons from the previous week, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%. The inventory of some provincial enterprises increased, while that of others decreased. The overall inventory reduction was limited, and it is expected that the inventory of urea production enterprises will enter a shock pattern next week [1][3]. - Price Trend and Influencing Factors: Futures prices are expected to run weakly. The easing of geopolitical conflicts has led to a sharp decline in international oil prices, putting pressure on the urea fundamentals. Weak domestic demand is mainly due to the pre - emptive agricultural demand and the high inventory of middle - stream traders. In the long - term, the pressure on urea is still high, and attention should be paid to factors such as the impact of international high prices on domestic export flow rates, the transmission of exports to spot transactions, and export policy adjustments [3].