工业硅：关注仓单变化信息，多晶硅：逢高空配思路为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting on rallies for polysilicon [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, inventory, and cost data, and also mentions a corporate financing project and the trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market Data: Si2509 closing price is 7,420 yuan/ton, PS2507 closing price is 30,615 yuan/ton. There are also data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and basis for both industrial silicon and polysilicon futures [2] - Spot Price and Premium: Prices of various grades of industrial silicon and polysilicon are provided, along with their spot premiums. For example, the spot premium of industrial silicon (against East China Si5530) is +705 yuan/ton [2] - Profit and Inventory: Silicon factory profits are negative, with -3776 yuan/ton for Xinjiang new - standard 553. Industrial silicon social inventory is 55.9 million tons, and polysilicon factory inventory is 26.2 million tons [2] - Raw Material Cost: Prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc., are given. For example, the price of Xinjiang silicon ore is 370 yuan/ton [2] - Photovoltaic Product Data: Prices and profit data of photovoltaic products like silicon wafers, battery cells, components, etc., are presented. For example, the price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers is 0.9 yuan/piece [2] - Organic Silicon and Aluminum Alloy: DMC price is 10,400 yuan/ton, and ADC12 price is 20,000 yuan/ton. Their corresponding enterprise profits are also provided [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Shanghai Aikosolar Energy Co., Ltd. plans to issue A - shares to raise up to 3.5 billion yuan for the Yiwu Phase VI 15GW high - efficiency crystalline silicon solar cell project and to supplement working capital. The project has good economic benefits with a financial internal rate of return of 10.17% and an investment payback period of 6.26 years [3][4] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is - 1, indicating a neutral view on industrial silicon and a bearish view on polysilicon [4]