Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Near - term fundamental improvement in production areas is limited, and reverse spread strategy can be used [1]. - Soybean oil: International oil prices have declined, leading to a correction in the unilateral price of oils and fats [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices: Palm oil main contract closed at a price with a daily - session decline of 0.19% and a night - session decline of 0.94%; soybean oil main contract closed at 8,520 (daily - session) and 8,126 (night - session) with daily - session decline of 0.37% and night - session decline of 0.71%; rapeseed oil main contract closed at 9,721 (daily - session) with a decline of 0.05% and 9,680 (night - session) with a decline of 0.42%. Other futures prices also showed different changes [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil main contract had a trading volume of 660,926 hands with an increase of 59,433 hands and an open interest of 489,038 hands with a decrease of 14,902 hands; soybean oil main contract had a trading volume of 391,600 hands with an increase of 17,077 hands and an open interest of 608,427 hands with a decrease of 10,676 hands; rapeseed oil main contract had a trading volume of 377,684 hands with an increase of 72,108 hands and an open interest of 393,879 hands with a decrease of 9,284 hands [1]. - Spot Prices: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was priced at 8,800 yuan/ton with a decrease of 20 yuan; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,370 yuan/ton with a decrease of 40 yuan; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,780 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Basis and Spreads: Palm oil basis in Guangdong was 280 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong was 244 yuan/ton; the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 1,201 yuan/ton, etc. [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Palm Oil in Malaysia: From June 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 2.67% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.03% month - on - month, and production increased by 2.5% month - on - month [2]. Malaysia exports about 50% of its products to Nigeria as palm oil, with an export value of $600 million in 2024 [4]. - Palm Oil in India: There may be a shortage and supply disruption of edible oil in India due to the congestion at Kandla Port, where several palm oil - carrying ships from Indonesia are waiting to unload. India's soybean oil imports in June are expected to decline by 18% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in four months [4]. - Soybean in the US: The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%; the sowing rate is 96%, lower than the market expectation of 97% [5]. - Soybean in Brazil: Brazil exported 9,026,124.24 tons of soybeans in the first three weeks of June, with a daily average export volume 8% lower than that of the whole month of June last year [5]. - Rapeseed in the EU: The EU's crop monitoring agency predicts that the rapeseed yield per unit area in 2025 will be 3.18 tons/ha, up from 3.17 tons/ha last month [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1, indicating a bearish view [6].
棕榈油:产地近端基本面改善有限,反套表达,豆油:国际油价回落,油脂单边回调
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-06-24 01:56