甲醇：地缘缓解，偏弱运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the methanol industry. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short - term, with the confirmation of a cease - fire agreement between the US and Israel mediated by Qatar by Iranian senior officials, the geopolitical conflict has eased, leading to a significant decline in international oil prices. It is expected that methanol will operate weakly under the condition of high valuation [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,504 yuan/ton, down 25 from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,512 yuan/ton, down 26; the trading volume was 2,496,954 lots, the open interest was 993,459 lots, an increase of 108,755; the number of warehouse receipts was 7,867 tons, a decrease of 58; the trading volume was 6,272,504 ten - thousand yuan, an increase of 1,189,303. The Ganglian basis was 221, down 1, and the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was 12, down 6 [2]. - Spot Market: The Jiangsu ex - tank price was 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Inner Mongolia price was 2,015 yuan/ton, up 5; the northern Shaanxi price was 2,055 yuan/ton, up 20; the Shandong price was 2,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot News - The methanol spot price index was 2,227.59, up 14.71. Among them, the Taicang spot price was 2,740, down 10, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 2,232.5, up 32.5. Among the 20 large and medium - sized cities monitored by Longzhong, 10 cities saw varying degrees of decline, with a decline range of 5 - 35 yuan/ton. The northwest methanol market rose slightly today. Although the futures market fluctuated and declined, the spot market atmosphere was good. Some enterprises in the region had active auction transactions and slightly premium transactions, and the market trading atmosphere significantly recovered. Currently, the long - term end - of - month delivery is nearing completion, and most of the previous low - price contracts have been executed, so some buyers are actively replenishing their stocks. Due to the unclear geopolitical situation in the Middle East, most market participants are bullish, and some holders are mainly cautious and reluctant to sell [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of methanol is - 1, indicating a weak downward trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5].