非银周观点：地缘风险扰动犹存，市场需外力破局-20250624

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][23]. Core Viewpoints - The market is experiencing increased volatility due to geopolitical risks, trade relationship disturbances, fluctuations in the ten-year treasury yield, and new public fund regulations. Attention is needed on the developments regarding the Israel-Iran conflict and potential countermeasures from the government [1][9]. - The insurance sector is showing signs of adjustment but is expected to trend upwards in the future. The first quarter of 2025 saw a steady growth in the scale of funds utilized by insurance companies, with the proportion of bonds and stocks reaching the highest levels in recent years [11][12]. - The report emphasizes the need for external forces to break the current market stagnation, with a focus on the upcoming political bureau meeting in July and potential further policies [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Main Points - The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3846.64 points (-0.45%), with the insurance index at 1232.37 points (0.27%) and the brokerage index at 6082.94 points (-1.73%) during the week of June 16-20, 2025 [7]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate between 4.25%-4.50%, indicating a cautious approach towards inflation [7][8]. 2. Key Investment Portfolio 2.1 Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is currently undervalued, presenting opportunities for valuation recovery. Recommended stocks include China Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and New China Life Insurance [12]. 2.2 Brokerage Sector - Focus on mid-sized securities firms benefiting from innovation and transformation, such as East Money and Zhejiang Securities. Additionally, large firms with diversified revenue structures like Huatai Securities are recommended [13][14]. 3. Market Trends - The ten-year treasury yield is fluctuating around 1.64%, influenced by new public fund regulations, with the insurance sector expected to experience upward volatility [11]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw the insurance industry's fund utilization reach 34.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [11].